In one respect it’s a quieter week for global markets and investors after last week’s flood of start of month data and meetings of major central banks, not to mention the flow of earnings reports in the US, UK, Asia and Australia.
But while this week looks quieter, it could very well be a madcap harum scarum few days if Donald Trump wins the US Presidential election tomorrow night and Wednesday morning, our time.
Mrs Clinton is still expected to win, but market volatility and nervousness will continue well after the poll results are known.
Apart from the US elections (There are Senate, House of Representatives, governorships and thousands of local polls as well) it will be a relatively quiet week with Chinese trade and inflation data and Australian business and consumer confidence data being the main areas of interest.
In the US, small business confidence (Tuesday) and consumer sentiment (Friday) may show an election related dip but data for job openings (Tuesday) is likely to remain solid.
The US third quarter profit season winds down this week with a lot of second and third tier companies reporting. Some of America’s major department store groups such as May’s and Nordstrom will release earnings figures this week, along with major UK retailers like J Sainsbury.
In Chinese the monthly trade data for October is out tomorrow and is expected to show some improvement in exports and imports. Watch for figures on iron ore, coal, oil and copper imports.
Consumer price inflation (Wednesday) is likely to edge up to 2.1% year on year and producer price inflation is expected to rise further to 0.9% year on year as higher commodity prices feed through, according to the AMP’s Chief Economist, Dr Shane Oliver.
In Britain there’s a debate on Brexit and workers rights in the House of Commons later in the week.
In Australia, business conditions and confidence as measured by the NAB survey (Tuesday) are expected to hold at above average levels, but consumer confidence (Wednesday) may be weaker. Housing finance figures for September are out on Thursday.
RBA deputy governor, Guy Debelle is on a business panel on Friday. The Banks’s head of its International Department, Chris Ryan speaks in Hong kong tomorrow.
Earnings in Australia this week include Westpac (today), Incitec Pivot tomorrow and DuluxGroup, also tomorrow. Singtel/Optus releases its quarterly report in Singapore and Australia on Thursday. In NZ, Mainfreight releases its latest results as well.
Annual meetings – the Commonwealth Bank of Wednesday will be dominated by pay and complaints about bad business activity, especially in its insurance arm. Domino’s Pizza will have a quieter affair later today.
Other meetings this week include Newcrest Mining, Medibank Private, REA Group, Ramsay Healthcare, Fortescue Metals, Treasury Wine Estates, News Corp and Harvey Norman on Friday where pay and the transparency of the company’s accounts will be a big issue.
