We get detailed 4th quarter GDP figures for a few countries this week, with Australia’s to dominate in Wednesday’s national accounts for the three months to December.
New figures for India will also be released and revised GDP data will be out for the US (the second reading) and for France, Italy, Spain and Canada.
And we also get the start of the month surveys of global manufacturing (and for countries like China, the US and Australia) on Wednesday, and then surveys of the various services sectors on Friday and Friday night.
In Australia, December quarter GDP data is likely to show a bounce back in growth led by a stronger consumer spending, a rebound in dwelling investment and public spending, the surge in our trade volumes and surplus and a smaller fall in business investment.
The AMP’s Chief Economist, Dr Shane Oliver says the figure is likely to be only around 0.6% quarter on quarter (after the 0.5% fall in the September quarter) leaving annual growth at just 1.8% year on year. Others in the market say it could be 0.7% and the NAB has estimated it could be up to 0.9%
Ahead of the GDP we get data later today on December quarter company profits led by the mining sector, inventories, stocks and wages and salaries. Tomorrow we get the current account for the December quarter, and government finance transactions for the same three months.
And the GDP data is out in the national accounts on Wednesday when we will also get February home prices (and before that new home sales). Another big trade surplus for January is forecast in Thursday’s trade data, while a small fall in building approvals is expected in the January data which is also out on Thursday.
The Australian December half profit reporting season will wrap up on Monday and Tuesday with only 15 major companies due to report including QBE, Harvey Norman and Lend Lease.
In the US, there’s a flood of start of the month data.
But before then we get the second estimate of US GDP tomorrow night – US 4th quarter growth is expected to be lifted to an annual 2.1% from the initially reported 1.9%.
The main focus though will be on the February manufacturing index (Wednesday night around the world as well as the US) and non-manufacturing (services) conditions index (Friday) both of which are likely to remain strong.
The Beige Book for the March Fed meeting is out Thursday night and should show an economy doing well.
And speeches by Fed Chair Yellen and Vice-Chair Fischer (both on Friday night, our time) which will be watched for clues as to whether to expect faster Fed rate hikes. With both the chair and her deputy speaking on the same day, a big message for markets seems to be on the cards.
In fact those speeches and Trump’s appearance at a joint session before Congress are seen as market risks for investors this week.
Other data includes underlying durable goods orders, pending home sales (both tonight, our time), home prices and consumer confidence (all tomorrow night, our time) and inflation as measured by the core private final consumption deflator (Wednesday night) with a small rise 1.8% year on year from 1.7% yoy forecast..
In the Eurozone, economic confidence indicators for February (tonight), CPI inflation for February (at around to 0.9% yoy) and unemployment (Thursday night) to have fallen to 9.5%, according to the AMP’s Dr Shane Oliver.
In Japan, expect a slight pull back in January industrial production (today), but continued strength in labour market indicators and a slight further improvement in household spending (Friday). Core inflation (also Friday) is likely to have remained around zero.
The two reports (one official one private) on Chinese manufacturing conditions are out on Wednesday and Dr Oliver says both are expected to have remained solid.
