Chinese imports boomed in February, driven by higher prices for iron ore and oil, and by the comparative effect with a year ago when commodity prices were at or near multi year lows following the slump in late 2015 and early 2016.
Oil and iron ore were stronger, but copper fell, as did coal imports last month.
On top of that we had the disruptions caused by China’s Lunar New Year holiday which fell in January this year against early February in 2016.
That helped make the big swings in the January and February figures for this year, against a year ago.
But the differing holiday timings failed to have an impact on the pace of iron ore imports in January and February, boosting volumes for the two months by nearly 13%, one of the fastest two month rises for years.
China’s iron ore imports rose to 83.49 million tonnes in February, up 13% from a year ago, but down 7% from the 92 million tones reported for January (which included the Lunar New Year Festival).
Total imports for the first two months of the year rose 12.6% to 175.3 million tonnes from a year ago, the highest ever fore the first two months of the year.
Analysts wonder if this rapid start to the year means there will be a slowdown in import volumes as the year progresses.
At the same time Chinese steel exports fell to a three-year low in February, as steelmakers in the world’s top producer shifted to meeting rising demand at home.
Shipments for the month were 5.75 million tonnes, the lowest since February 2014, data from the country’s Customs showed.That was down 29.1% from a year ago and down 22.5% from January.
The continuing rally in steel prices from 2016 has prompted Chinese steelmakers to raise production. Rebar futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange have risen 18.5% so far this year.
Total exports for the first two months, which smoothes out the impact of the Lunar New Year holiday falling at different times, fell 25.7% to 13.17 million tonnes.
Imports of steel rose from a year ago to 1.09 million tonnes in February, up 17%. Total imports for the first two months of 2017 jumped 17.6% from a year ago to 2.18 million tonnes.
China’s coal imports fell by almost a third in February from January to their lowest in a year, thanks to be impact of the Lunar New Year holiday and the peak winter heating season (which ends next month).
China imported 17.68 million tonnes of coal, down 29% from January, but up 30.6% from last February.
Arrivals for the first two months of 2017 totalled 42.61 million tonnes, up a massive 48.5%. China imported 255 million tonnes of coal in 2016.
China slapped a surprise ban in mid-February on imports from North Korea, the country’s main supplier of anthracite coal.
China’s coal imports dipped slightly in December from the previous month but were still up more than 50% from a year earlier at 26.84 million tonnes.
China’s crude oil imports rose to the second-highest level on record last month, as strong demand from independent refiners continued to drive growth
February’s imports came to 31.78 million tonnes or 8.286 million barrels per day (bpd), up 3.5% on a year ago.
The daily figure was down from behind December’s record 8.57 million bpd, but up on 8.01 million bpd in January.
And copper imports fell sharply in February.
Copper imports to China were 340,000 tonnes last month, down 10.5% on a month earlier and down 19% from a year ago.
For the first two months of the year, imports were 720,000 tonnes, down nearly 16%.
Arrivals of concentrates and ore increased 14.4% from January to 1.43 million tonnes.
