The outcome of the French election will dominate early in the week internationally, along with the 2017-18 federal budget here, the start of the month data for housing approvals and retail sales, plus the Westpac interim which is out this morning.
Emmanuel Macron’s bigger than expected win with a 65% share of the vote will be greeted positively by markets, as will a big win in a German state election by the political party of Chancellor Angela Merkel.
Markets in Asia will be the first react to the French result and we should see a solid rise, but a more important announcement for Australia and the region will be China’s April trade figures later today.
As well investors will be keeping a very close eye on futures markets in china and Asia for any signs of a renewing of the sell off in commodities which came out of nowhere late last week, pushing iron ore prices for more than 12%.
The federal budget is the big economic news of the week, but apart from the size of the deficit, estimates of inflation, unemployment GDP group and a few other points, it will be a pretty boring event.
Late this morning we get Sydney building approvals for March, and ANZ job advertisements for April.
The Westpac result is out first thing today and we will then have an idea how it gone when compared to the rivals, the NAB, ANZ and the Commonwealth, which is due to release its third quarter trading update tomorrow morning.
Tomorrow also sees the retail sales figures for March and the March quarter and the National Australia Bank business survey for April and the Incitec Pivot half year results.
Wednesday sees reaction to the budget dominating, while Thursday is busy with BT Investment Management and GrainCorp releasing half year reports, the NBN releasing its third quarter figures and annual meetings from AMP, Genworth Australia and GPT.
Friday sees the release of Myer’s third quarter sales figures.
In the US consumer price inflation is the major release on Friday and the headline rate will be around 2%.
Friday also sees April retail sales data released with a slid rise expected.
The US March quarter reporting season is on its final legs this week with a handful of S&P 500 stocks to report, led by retailers.
Among the results expected this week will be quarterly reports from the two Murdoch family companies – News Corp (Wednesday morning, Sydney time) and Thursday morning (Sydney time) for 21st Century Fox. Walt Disney also reports on the same day in the US.
In Asia the Chinese trade data later today is expected to show slightly slower but still strong export and import growth (Monday).
Wednesday sees consumer price inflation data which is expected to edge higher, while the pace of producer price inflation should ease as commodity prices fall.
In Europe, the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee meeting and updated forecasts are out later in the week.
Thursday also sees other central banks in New Zealand and the Philippines announcing monetary policy decisions. The Kiwi central bank is expected to follow ours and sit on its official cash rate.
And South Korea holds its presidential election.
