A quiet week mostly as we approach the end of the second quarter, the June half year and more importantly in Australia, the end of the 2017-18 financial year (see separate story).
Outside of the approach of June 30, this week will be quiet here – ABS job vacancies data on Thursday and private credit data from the Reserve Bank on Friday.
Offshore and global politics remain the big concern – the fall out from Turkey’s national elections yesterday and the continuing trade war jibber jabber from President Trump.
Will the US and China start negotiating again this week to try and head off the July 6 scheduled start for US tariffs on imports from China?
There’s the European summit in Brussels on Thursday and Friday taking and issues like Brexit and relations with the UK, attempts to strengthen European integration and the big one, solving the immigration problem that is impactinG Germany, Austria, Italy and Turkey (where those poll results will cause a ripple or two).
In the US new home sales data tonight, home prices and continued strength in consumer confidence (tomorrow night), durable goods orders and pending home sales (on Wednesday) and strong personal spending data for May with a rise in the core personal consumption deflator to 2% year on year (Friday).
As well the third and final estimate of first quarter US GDP will be issued midweek.
Economists expect growth figures for the three months to March period to remain unchanged at 2.2%.
There are a few US earnings reports from groups like cruise operator Carnival, homebuilder Lennar, retailers Bed, Bath & Beyond and Nike and food companies General Mills and ConAgra Brands.
In Europe eurozone inflation data for June to be released on Friday will be watched closely but the AMP’s Chief Economist, Dr Shane Oliver reckons “with core inflation likely to fall back to just 1% year on year it’s likely to reinforce expectations for the ECB to leave rates around zero for a long time.”
Business and consumer confidence data will also be released.
Chinese business conditions PMIs for June due to be released on Saturday June 30 will be watched for any sign of the slowing evident in activity data for May and next Monday.
Japanese labour market and industrial production data will be released on Friday.
Soccer’s World Cup continues with the knockout round of 16 due to start next weekend.
