Donald Trump dominates the coming week. On top of his triggering of a trade war with China – which he has threatened to expand, he goes to Europe for a Nato summit in Brussels ahead of his trip to the UK.
He will out-headline the final stages of the World Cup in Russia and the second week of Wimbledon and the first full week of the Tour de France.
Trump’s first stop will be Brussels for the Nato summit on July 11-12, where he will very likely abuse his hosts’ hospitality by abusing them and perhaps threatening to leave the alliance.
Mr Trump has made Nato a frequent talking and tweeting point, and European NATO members fear the unpredictable president will cut funds and forces from the continent’s defence.
After his Nato meeting, Mr Trump will go to the UK, from July 13 for a four-day visit. Mr Trump is largely expected to try and ignore protests in London and elsewhere meeting the prime minister, Theresa May, dining with 150 businesspeople and meeting the queen, in addition to a stop by his golf course in Scotland. Trump will largely avoid London.
Later today he will reveal his nominee for the looming vacancy on the US Supreme Court.
So far as data and business issues are concerned, China’s June quarter and half year data will start being released this week with car sales and lending details on Wednesday.
Consumer and producer inflation figures will be out on Thursday and trade on Friday. June quarter growth, industrial production and house prices are all out early next week.
Analysts will be watching to see if the sluggishness in the economy that appeared later in the first quarter has spilled over, as policy moves suggest.
They will also be wondering if there is any impact on the trade data from the early rounds of the US tariffs on steel and aluminium.
In the US consumer price inflation data on Thursday will grab the attention of markets with a rise as high as 2.9% expected in the headline rate and a core reading around 2.3%(from 2.2% annually) because of higher energy prices.
A reading that high with June’s 213,000 new jobs will almost certainly see the US Federal Reserve lift rates for a third time this year at its August policy meeting, according to many analysts.
US bond yields fell last week with the yield on 10 year securities falling to 2.82% the lowest since January and a long way from more than 3.1% reached in May.
The US June quarter earnings season starts later this week (See separate story). Our’s is a few weeks off.
The Bank of Canada is expected to reveal a 25-basis point increase to interest rates next week, bringing the key rate to 1.5%, but it could very well sit on its hands, according to local analysts.
There will be speeches this week from some of the world’s major central bankers — Bank of Japan governor Kuroda, European Central Bank chief Draghi, Bank of England boss Carney and Bank of Canada’s Poloz all appear in public.
In Australia, the focus will be on the June NAB monthly business conditions and confidence survey tomorrow and then the Westpac consumer confidence survey on Wednesday.
May housing finance data is also out on Wednesday is likely to remain soft with another fall after the weaker building approvals last week.
