The unemployment rate fell to new six-year lows in September as the jobs boom continued its slowdown.
Figures from the Australian Bureau of Statistics showed a trend unemployment rate at 5.2%, a six-year low (the August rate was revised down to 5.2%, so the September rate was unchanged).
On a seasonally adjusted basis, the unemployment rate fell to 5.0% in September, a seven-year low.
The last time the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate was this low was June 2011, at 4.9%.
Around 26,000 new jobs were created in trend terms, the participation rate remained steady at a very high 65.6%. In seasonally adjusted terms only around 5,600 new jobs created and the participation rate eased a touch
The ABS around 290,000 jobs were created in the year to September – a growth rate of 2.4%, still well above the 20-year rate of 2%, and down from the 2.5% annual rate in August and 3.3% at the start of this year
“Today’s figures continue to show a gradual decrease in the trend unemployment rate that began in late 2014. The trend unemployment rate of 5.2 percent is the lowest it has been since mid-2012.” said the Chief Economist for the ABS, Bruce Hockman.
The trend monthly hours worked increased by 0.2 percent in September 2018 and by 1.8 percent over the past year.
The states and territories with the strongest annual growth in trend employment were New South Wales (3.4%) and Victoria (2.6%). New South Wales and Victoria were the only states and territories to record year-on-year growth above their 20-year averages.
The ABS said the net movement of employed in both trend and seasonally adjusted terms is underpinned by well over 300,000 people entering employment, and more than 300,000 leaving employment in the month.
The AMP’s chief economist, Shane Oliver wrote in a note yesterday:
“Continued growth in total hours worked and the fall in the unemployment rate will benefit consumers through higher aggregate household income, as well as boosting consumer sentiment.
“However, the large amount of labour market slack means wage inflation pressures will remain weak. Whilst we expect wage pressures to pick up gradually, the Australian consumer continues to face considerable headwinds due to the ongoing housing market correction and a savings rate that is already extremely low.
“All this means the RBA looks set to leave interest rates on hold till at least 2020,“ Dr. Oliver said.
