In Australia, it will be a quiet week on the corporate and economic data front, the noise will come in the political sphere following the shock result in the Wentworth by-election on Saturday.
The win by independent Kerryn Phelps opens up the prospect of 8 months or so of minority government for the coalition parties in Canberra.
That is likely to see few if any controversial moves by the government on the legislation front, unless it wants to grandstand.
There are only three more weeks of Federal parliament this year and possibly four or five in early 2019 – the poll is expected by late May.
Now there are the Victorian and NSW state polls in late November and March next year respectively and that means very little will happen.
Possibly the most important data release will be the mid-year economic update in January which is likely to show a surge in government revenues and forecasts of a tiny budget deficit and a certain budget surplus in 2019-20.
Inflation, jobs, GDP and other data will confirm the continuing strength of the economy
That’s because of the continuing strength of iron ore prices, now above $US73 a tonne in China instead of forecasts of just over $US50 a tonne for the year. On top of this LNG prices jumped 21% in the September quarter and that will add to the buoyancy in the resources sector.
The only data this week will be skilled vacancy data due Wednesday.
Corporate results are expected from Namoi Cotton and Blackmores (first quarter). There will be plenty of annual meetings, plus more quarterly production and sales reports.
In the US the first reading of third quarter GDP data is due on Friday night our time.
The AMP’s chief economist, Dr. Shane Oliver says the data “will likely show that economic growth slowed in the September quarter to a 3.2% annual pace from 4.2% in the June quarter. ”
“June quarter growth was inflated by a bounce back from the seasonally weak March quarter and Hurricane Florence is also likely to have dampened September quarter growth so underlying growth is probably running around 3.5%.”
Other US data, expect a further increase in home prices and new home sales (both Wednesday), October business conditions surveys (also due Wednesday), pending home sales on Thursday.
Meanwhile, the flow of September quarter earnings reports picks up with 160 S&P 500 companies due to report – watch for the release of reports from Amazon, Snap, Twitter, Intel and Alphabet (Google) on Thursday and Microsoft on Wednesday.
The Bank of Canada is widely tipped by economists to boost its key rate rates by 25 basis points (0.25%) to 1.75% on Wednesday night, our time, following the Fed higher.
In Europe, the European Central Bank is not expected to make any changes to monetary policy at its meeting on Thursday and business conditions surveys for October are due on Wednesday.
Tuesday sees the start of the much reduced Saudi investment forum. While many executives and representatives from western countries (especially the US) will not be there, Russian representatives and those from some other countries will attend. The western and other media will probably outnumber delegates from their countries. Australia will not be attending.
The murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi’s at the Saudi consulate in Istanbul on October 2 has seen a rising tide of pullouts from what was billed as Davos in the Desert. Saudi’s wild swings on the death are not helping – first, the country said the journalist left the consulate alive, now on Friday night it claims he was killed in a “fight”.
