Wall Street has managed to put together three days of gains, but remains skittish. Last night’s manufacturing PMI highlights a market in two minds – tariffs impacting on manufacturing, not good, weaker data keeping Fed at bay, good.
That’s the mindset as we head into tonight’s non-farm payrolls result. The private sector number earlier in the week was a “beat” but in greater focus will be wage growth and the inflation implications therein.
Once jobs are out of the way, the next focus is on the midterm elections on Tuesday night. If the polls are right, then the Republicans will lose the House. This won’t stop Trump’s agenda, but it may make it tougher to execute. Will such an outcome send Wall Street plunging once more? The polls have ben suggesting a Democrat House for some time, so Wall Street should already be prepared.
But no one has any faith in polls since Brexit. If the Republicans keep the house, Wall Street will likely surge.
US economic data next week include the services PMI and PPI, with the Fed minutes also due.
China will report trade data – increasingly under greater scrutiny – and inflation numbers.
The UK will release its September quarter GDP result.
Tuesday is Cup Day in Australia, so Victoria is closed, and everyone else is out of action in from lunchtime. The rate that stops the nation will be published ahead of the race that stops the nation, but won’t stop anyone. If ever the RBA had an excuse to use last month’s statement…
Australian data next week in include ANZ job ads, the services and construction PMIs, housing finance and the RBA’s quarterly Statement on Monetary Policy.
Next week’s corporate calendar is yet another busy one.
Westpac ((WBC)) will wrap up bank reporting season while results are also due from EclipX ((ECX)), Pendal Group ((PDL)) and Xero ((XRO)) while James Hardie ((JHX)), News Corp ((NWS)) and REA Group ((REA)) deliver quarterly numbers.
AGM season rolls on, the most notable of them next week being Commonwealth Bank ((CBA)) and BHP ((BHP)).
Note that the US goes off summer time over the weekend, such that come Tuesday morning the NYSE will close at 8am Sydney time.
The SPI Overnight will also shift to an 8am close, from 7am presently.
