Australian jobs and mining company quarterlies, Chinese growth, US earnings and a scattering of other data for investors to chew over as Wall Street starts another week at record levels.
The Australian jobs report for June and the minutes of the July reserve Bank board meeting – which saw the second 0.25% cut in a row – will dominate local markets and investor thinking.
The jobs report for June, the quarter, half year and especially the 2018-19 financial year will be watched closely by economists and especially the Reserve Bank which is looking for signs of continuing strength in the labour market.
Some economists wonder if the report which show a kick up in the unemployment rate on a trend basis to 5.2% (and joining the seasonally adjusted figure) and whether there will be a fall in full-time jobs that is only partly offset by a rise in part-time work, as it was in May.
Others say they would not be surprised by an overall fall in employment – tiny, but enough to change the economic debate.
Before that there’s the RBA minutes are out tomorrow and will reveal the extent of the discussion leading up to the decision to cut the cash rate to a new record low of 1%.
While Governor Phillip Lowe explained the thinking in a speech in Darwin several hours to board met, economists would like to see some of the detail of the topics discussed at the meeting.
Australia also sees the release of a couple of minor June 30 results and a flood quarterly and yearly mining reports (see separate story) from the Likes of BHP, Rio Tinto, and Santos.
Australia will, of course, be vitally interested in the major event in Asia (and globally for that matter) this week – the Chinese June quarter growth and other economic data out later today.
The GDP report is expected to show that China will report its slowest economic growth in at least 27 years for the June quarter and first half.
Economists say June quarter growth could fall to an annual rate of 6.2%, down from the March quarter’s 6.4%.
That was a quarter on quarter growth rate of 1.4%. An annual rate of 6.2% will give a rate for the first half of 2019 around 6.3% unless there are any revisions.
China’s industrial production, retail sales, fixed asset investment, house price index for June and the six months to June will also be released.
Elsewhere there’s the mid-month global business survey from IHS Markit which will probably confirm the continuing slowdown around the world.
The US sees the release of retail sales and industrial production data for June with both due for release tomorrow.
Data on housing starts and permits will also be released, plus a number of surveys of regional business activity as well as consumer confidence on Friday.
The June quarter reporting season gets underway with a slew of banks, tech and manufacturing companies reporting (see separate story).
Japan sees the release of trade and inflation data this week. South Korea’s central bank meets to update its monetary policy stance mid-week.
