The rotten run of retail sales figures continued in July with growth again falling, despite estimates from the market for a small rise based on a post-election bump to confidence and the early impact of tax refunds.
Nothing of the sort happened and sales fell in July after a rise of 0.4% rise in June.
The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) on Tuesday reported retail sales in July, fell 0.1% in July from June. Retail sales rose 2.4% in the year to July in trend terms.
Sales were down in almost every state and territory, led by South Australia and the ACT where they dropped by 0.5%. NSW and Victoria both fell by 0.1 percent in seasonally adjusted terms. Only Western Australia and the Northern Territory saw rises.
“There were falls in four of the six industries and six of the eight states and territories in July,” Ben James, Director of the ABS’s Quarterly Economy Wide Surveys.
“Cafes, restaurants and takeaway services (-0.6 percent) led the falls. There were also falls in Clothing, footwear and personal accessory retailing (-1.0 percent), Other retailing (-0.4 per cent), and Department stores (-0.2 percent).
“Food retailing (0.3 per cent), and Household goods retailing (0.1 per cent) rose this month,” he said.
This figures means the third quarter has started with weak data on building approvals and now retail sales, which tells us the much hoped for upturn after the very weak three months to June, has yet to appear.
The AMP’s Chief Economist, Dr. Shane Oliver wrote in a note after the ABS release was issued “Its probably too early to have expected the Federal Government’s tax refunds to have shown up in increased spending in July, but the result was still worse than the market consensus for a 0.2% rise.”
“August and September should receive some boost from the tax cuts but its likely to be modest and the poor July result highlights the tough underlying conditions facing retailers as housing construction turns down, housing turnover remains low, negative wealth effects continue to impact and wages growth remains low.”
