Three in four? That’s the big question for the Australian market next week when the RBA meets on Tuesday. Currently, a 75% chance of another -25 point rate cut is being ascribed.
Making things difficult is Tuesday is the first of the new month and new quarter, meaning any quarter-end window-dressing/profit-taking has to be implemented by end-Monday while carrying RBA risk.
Beijing will release its September manufacturing and services PMIs on Monday before beginning a week-long break for Golden Week. For some reason this week is never quite as disruptive as the New Year break early in the year.
The next Fed meeting is not until late in October and there is a lot that may transpire in that period.
Economically, tonight sees US durable goods and PCE inflation and next week brings the manufacturing and services PMIs and numbers for trade and jobs.
The September quarter earnings season will shorty begin, followed hot on the heels by the resumption of US-China senior level trade talks.
Tuesday is manufacturing PMI day across the globe and Wednesday is services PMIs.
Australian data this week include private sector credit, building approvals, trade and retail sales.
Earnings reports are due on Monday from ALS ltd ((ALQ)), Northern Star Resources ((NST)) and Nufarm ((NUF)). Ausdrill will hold its AGM next week and Wesfarmers will host an investor presentation.
The flood of ex-dividends is beginning to ease and the larger cap stocks are becoming fewer on the calendar. ARB Corp ((ARB)) is the only real biggie next week.
