Another start of month and quarter (which is the final of 2019) this week that could be fraught with dangers.
There are central bank meetings in Australia and India, the usual start of month surveys of manufacturing and services (especially in China), plus the significant quarterly Tankan survey from the Bank of Japan.
There are the dramas of Brexit of course and in the US more on the growing movement to attempt to impeach President Donald Trump.
In Australia, it’s the Reserve Bank board meeting tomorrow where many economists reckon the central bank will cut rates (see separate story).
RBA Governor, Philip Lowe will issue his usual post-meeting statement explaining the decision and then speaks at a Melbourne business dinner after the board meeting where he fleshes out the earlier decision.
The RBA’s second Financial Stability Review of the year will be published on Friday after being discussed at tomorrow’s board meeting. It is likely to show little threat to the financial system now that the home mortgage lending rorts of a few years ago have been brought under control.
House price data for September will be released tomorrow and will show an upturn in prices in Sydney and Melbourne thanks to the cuts in interest rates.
Car sales figures will be released later in the week – also for September. Private credit figures for August will be issued later this morning by the RBA – economists like the AMP’s Dr. Shane Oliver say watch for a rise in housing credit.
Building approvals for August will be issued tomorrow by the Australian Bureau of Statistics and are expected to show a small rise that will not make up with the 10% slump in July.
Friday sees the release of building approvals and retail sales for August. Analysts are looking for a big rise in retail sales after the 0.1% slip in July. They think the partial spending of the tax refunds should start showing up in sales data.
But the major global data release will be the US September employment and wages data on Friday night, our time.
Economists see 140,000 new jobs, annual wages growth staying around 3.2% and the unemployment rate remaining at 3.7% – in other words, little change from August.
But some analysts say don’t be surprised if the number of new jobs dips under 100,000 to reflect what has been a softening in US consumer spending and the continuing loss in manufacturing jobs as the impact of Trump’s tariffs and trade war with China hits home.
Other data in the US this week includes the September surveys of manufacturing and services activity, trade data for August and car sales data for September.
In the Eurozone, unemployment (today) in August is likely to have remained at 7.5% and core inflation for September (tomorrow) is likely to have remained around 0.9%yoy, according to Dr. Oliver’s forecasts.
Besides the latest quarterly Tankan survey (which is forecast to show a weakening after the continuing slide in exports), the Japanese jobs data tomorrow will show tight conditions continue.
China’s two surveys of manufacturing activity – one official and one private – will be released today ahead of the start of the holidays for Golden Week and the celebration of the 70th anniversary of the formation of the modern Chinese state back in 1949.
