China’s economic health will be the major focus for global markets this week, along with the reported partial settlement of the trade dispute with the US.
Chinese September quarter GDP growth on Friday will be the centerpiece report and is expected to show a further slowing to 6.1% year on year (from 6.2% in the June quarter).
The AMP’s Chief Economist, Dr. Shane Oliver says blame the impact of Donald Trump’s trade war on an earlier credit tightening for any sign of a slowdown.
September activity data also due out on Friday. Dr. Oliver says to watch for a rebound in growth in industrial production to 5% year on year and retail sales to 7.8% but flat growth in investment at 5.5%.
Today sees the release of China’s September trade data (and that for the quarter and first nine months of the year).
Dr. Oliver says this is expected to show a slowing in exports to -3%yoy and more weakness in imports around -6%yo. Consumer and producer price inflation data is out tomorrow – Dr. Oliver says to watch for a rise in the CPI to 2.9% yoy as a result of swine flu boosting pork prices but core inflation is likely to remain weak and producer price deflation is expected to intensify to -1.3%yoy.
Today sees the release of money supply and credit data, along with car sales figures where another monthly decline is expected.
Then there are the latest trade talks between the US and China and reports of a partial settlement (See the US markets story).
In the US on the data front, September retail sales (a solid rise of around 0.3% is forecast by Dr. Oliver) and continued strength in home buyer conditions are both due Wednesday.
There’s also housing starts (Thursday) and industrial production (also due Thursday). Manufacturing conditions for the New York and Philadelphia regions will also be released.
Investors will also be watching remarks from Federal Reserve policymakers, including voting members of the Open Market Committee including St Louis Fed President James Bullard, Chicago Fed President Charles Evans, New York Fed President John Williams and Kansas City Fed President Esther George.
The annual meetings of the World Bank and IMF kick will be held in Washington with the fund to release updated economic forecasts and its global financial stability review.
The September quarter earnings reporting season will kick off in the week ahead with around 50 S&P companies down to release results (See separate US earnings story).
Japanese core inflation for September on Friday is expected to remain soft at around 0.6% year on year (The Bank of Japan’s target is 2%).
In Europe, the Brexit shambles continues – will the “progress” rumoured on Friday night turn into anything concrete?
In Australia, the minutes from the RBA’s last board meeting are expected to repeat that the RBA will ease monetary policy again if need to support growth, full employment, and the inflation target.
September jobs data to be released Thursday are expected to show jobs growth of 20,000 with unemployment remaining at 5.3% and underemployment remaining high.
And September quarter production figures are expected from a host of major miners this week led by BHP, Woodside, Santos, OZ Minerals and Rio Tinto.
