While China’s imports fell for a fifth month in a row in September, figures for some key commodities told a different story.
And it is mostly good news for Australia.
For example, the much warned about a slowdown in Chinese demand for iron ore didn’t happen last month. In fact China’s iron ore imports rose for a third straight month in September to a 20-month high, according to customs data released on Monday.
Thanks to continuing strong demand from the country’s steel mills and no disruptions to shipments (and a slight dip in prices to the low $US90s a tonne for the standard 62% Fe ore China’s imports hit their highest monthly figure since January 2018 (when the influence of the Chinese New Year in February of that year dragged forward shipments into January)
Imports last month totalled 99.36 million tonnes, up 4.8% from 94.85 million tonnes in August and well above the 93.47 million tonnes in September 2018.
For the first nine months of the year, imports 784 million tonnes, down 2.4% from 803.34 million tonnes in the same period a year ago.
Stocks of iron ore at China’s major ports stood at 125.55 million tonnes as of end-September, little changed from end-August, according to data compiled by consultancy SteelHome.
Analysts say imports may be hit by the looming production limits for China’s winter heating season from mid-November to mid-March but Reuters said analysts don’t expect a major impact on steel production.
A slightly different story in coal China’s coal imports in September dropping 8.1% from a month earlier, as traders delayed taking up their deliveries because of high domestic output and falling demand for coal from local power stations as more homes are connected to gas.
Imports of coal, including thermal and coking coal, last month were a still solid 30.29 million tonnes, data released by the General Administration of Customs showed on Monday.
That was down from the 32.95 million tonnes imported in August. But imports were up 20.5% from 25.14 million tonnes in September last year.
In the January to September period imports of coal totalled 250.57 million tonnes, up 9.5% from the same period in 2018.
Government policy, although never stated publicly, requires that annual imports do not exceed the previous year’s level, so Chinese imports could fall sharply if that policy is maintained. If not the total for 23019 could top 340 million tonnes.
In 2018, China brought in a total of 281.23 million tonnes of coal.
China’s crude oil imports in September again rose strongly in September – up a solid 10.8% from a year thanks to stable profit margins and solid demand, according to Reuters.
Imports totalled 41.24 million tonnes of crude, equivalent to 10.04 million barrels per day (bpd), according to the data from the country’s General Administration of Customs on Monday.
That compared with 9.93 million bpd in August and 9.05 million bpd in September last year.
Over the first nine months in 2019, crude oil arrivals reached 369.04 million tonnes, or 9.87 million bpd, up 9.7% from the same period last year.
Total natural gas imports, including LNG and pipeline, in September rose 7.7% from the same period last year to 8.21 million tonnes as the country is pushing harder to store gas before households in northern China turn on heating systems in early November.
In the period of January-September, natural gas imports reached 71.22 million tonnes, up 10% from same period last year.
Reuters says China plans to add 4.93 million households to its gas delivery systems this year. Over 2017 and 2018, nearly 10 million households switched from coal-fired heating equipment to gas-or electric-powered systems.
China’s customs data showed the country also exported 5.68 million tonnes of refined oil products in September, up 39.6% from a year earlier, as refiners worked to fill their annual export quotas before the end of the year.
Exports for the first three quarters were 47.76 million tonnes rose 8.3% on the first three quarters of 2018.
And China’s copper imports in September were up a solid 10.1% from a month earlier to 445,000 tonnes, the highest in eight months.
China’s copper imports include anode, refined, alloy, concentrate and semi-finished copper products.
Imports of unwrought copper, including anode, refined and semi-finished copper products totalled 445,000 tonnes last month.
That was up from 404,000 tonnes in August but down 14.6% from a high 521,000 tonnes in September last year, which was the highest monthly total since early 2016.
China exported 435,000 tonnes of unwrought aluminium and aluminium products, including primary, alloy and semi-finished aluminum products, in September, down from August’s 466,000 tonnes.
And to the most sensitive import of all – soybeans – a major area of contention between the US and China in the Trump trade war as Chinese buyers retaliate by cutting the level of their purchases from America and search in Brazil, Argentina, and Europe for product.
Overlaying this is the reduction in demand from the country’s pig industry as the African Swine Fever epidemic continues to cut the size of the national herd (down 37% in the past year) and therefore demand for feed (mostly soybean meal).
That saw China’s soybean imports fell 13.5% in September from August.
Imports totaled 8.2 million tonnes, down from August’s 9.48 million tonnes, but above the 8.01 million of September 2018.
For the first nine months of the year, China imported 64.511 million tonnes of soybeans, down 7.9% from the same period last year.
