China is heading for its 4th year in a row of iron ore imports topping 1 billion tonnes with non-Brazilian exporters – mostly in Australia – able to make up for the multi-million-tonne shortfall from Brazil’s Vale in the wake of the January 25 mine dam wall disaster.
As well there were a series of supply disruptions from Australia caused by problems at Rio Tinto’s export terminals at Cape Lambert and mining issues at the massive Mount tom price mining hub.
BHP also had mining planning problems at its Pilbara mines which has cut quality levels. Bad weather also cut shipments in March.
Fortescue was the only major Australian problem not to report any real problems apart from a brief cut by Cyclone Veronica in March which affected the rest of the Pilbara exporters.
November trade figures showed Chinese imports of ore were down 0.7% to 970.69 million tonnes in the first 11 months of the year, putting the country on track to bringing in around 1.060 billion tonnes by the end of December.
That would put the total in the range of the all-time high of 1.075 billion tonnes imported in 2017 and the 2018 total of 1.064 billion tonnes. imports topped the billion tonne level in 2016 for the first time with a total of 1.020 billion.
China has actually boosted imports in the back half of 2019 compared with the half. In the first seven months of this year, imports were running 4.9% under the level for the January-July period of 2018. That has now been narrowed to a shortfall of 0.7% at the end of November.
Prices hit their highest level since 2012 in early July at around $Us125 a tonne but then fell over the next month which in turn saw Chinese steel mills accelerate their demand for higher-grade ores, especially 65% ore from Brazil.
November saw global iron ore prices top the $US90 a tonne mark for a day before retreating. Prices for 62% Fe imported into northern China were around $US89 a tonne last Friday But on Monday they surged 5.5% to $US93.92 a tonne for the standard 62% Fe ore delivered to northern China.
November’s crude steel production data will be issued next Monday but output was up 7.4% at 829.22 million tonnes in the 10 months to September.
It’s on track to reach around 990 million tonnes by the end of this month. China produced 928.3 million tonnes in 2018.
Coal imports – including metallurgical coal for the steel industry – has already topped 2018’s 281 million tonnes at 299.1 million.
