It’s usually in the US that investors are glued to their screen when the latest labour market data are released, but next week a similar ritual is likely in Australia.
Economists are predicting an increase (net) to the tune of 20,000 new jobs which is thought to be sufficient to keep the official jobless rate at 5.2%. Apparently leading indicators for the local jobs market are signaling demand is strong enough to keep the unemployment rate steady in the months ahead.
But then this is Australia where jobs market data swing around a lot more. And does anyone genuinely know how much impact there might be from bushfires and extreme temperatures, not to forget what appeared to have been a rather subdued December environment for many a consumer facing business across the major cities?
Economists at ANZ Bank, for example, are toying with the possibility that jobs growth in next week’s update might only be 10,000 net, which is half of what is expected. This, they suggest, could cement another cash rate reduction from the RBA in February.
ANZ Bank’s worry doesn’t have to be correct. Traders and other market participants will be glued to their screen when the ABS releases local jobs data on Thursday morning, that much is certain. The next RBA meeting is scheduled for the 4th February.
Before then, Australia’s labour market data will be updated for the month of January on Thursday, 20th January.
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The week ahead will also see decision makers at the ECB and the BoJ meet, but expectations are no policy changes or further rate cuts will be announced. The IMF is scheduled to release its updated forecasts for the World Economic Outlook. Always fun, even though these forecasts are never ahead of the curve.
In case anyone wonders: there appears to be a broad carried, general assessment that Phase One between the Trump administration and China has more of a stabilising, if note worse case scenarios averted impact, rather than acting as a significant economic stimulus for the global economy.
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And while corporate results in the US continue to be released, Australia is taking note of quarterly performances by miners and energy companies. On Tuesday, it’s BHP Group’s turn. Local investors will have to wait until the following week when US-listed ResMed unofficially opens the local reporting season.
For more details, see the four-week calendar on the FNArena website.
