COVID-19 continues to dominate economics and markets across the globe and this week will not be any different.
The Easter break takes a day off the week ahead, and it could also see pressure on COVID-19 outbreaks around the world, especially if people in the northern hemisphere take advantage of fine weather. Religious services in some countries will have to be watched closely.
The number of new COVID-19 cases, lockdowns and their economic impact and the global policy response to deal with it will remain the focus in the week ahead, especially in the US, Spain, the UK, South America, Indonesia, and Africa.
Singapore, long considered a success story, has ordered a near-complete crackdown of schools and most businesses.
Key to watch for remains a continuing downtrend in new cases in Italy and a peak, hopefully in the next few weeks, in the number of new cases the US.
The major corporate event will be the OPEC meeting sometime this week, perhaps April 9. It has been pushed back from tonight, our time. If this meeting is seen to fail in any way then oil prices will slump.
In the US the minutes from the Fed’s last meeting (on Wednesday) are likely to indicate preparedness to ease more if needed.
On the US data front, expect to see a plunge in job openings for February (tomorrow), a further sharp rise in jobless claims (Thursday) and core CPI inflation (Friday) remaining around 2.3% year on year.
In China on Friday, CPI inflation for March is expected to fall to around 4.9%yoy with core inflation around 1.5%yoy. Credit data for February is also due this week.
In Australia, The AMP’s Chief Economist, Dr. Shane Oliver says the RBA tomorrow is expected to leave rates on hold at 0.25%, but the RBA could indicate a willingness to expand its low-cost funding facility for banks and should consider expanding its bond-buying program to the corporate debt market.
The RBA will also release its Financial Stability Review (Thursday), the first for the year and it will be the first regulatory comment on what and where the central bank thinks the COVID-19 will impact the financial system
On the data front, Dr. Oliver says we can expect to see a sharp fall in ANZ job ads for March today, a fall in the trade surplus for February (tomorrow) and a rise in housing finance commitments for February (on Wednesday).
The South Korean central bank meets on Thursday and could step up its stimulus. Italian industrial production on Thursday for February is usually not a top tier stat, but given the enormous damage done by the coronavirus, the figures will be appallingly bad.
