The March jobless data has provided us with a first, very small glimpse of the impact on the Australian economy from the COVID-19 pandemic.
Unemployment rose just 0.1% points to 5.2% seasonally adjusted, according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics.
Around 20,000 people lost work through the month, pushing up the jobless rate by 0.1 percentage point. Economists had been expecting unemployment to reach 5.4% on with the loss of 30,000 jobs, up from 5.1 per cent in February.
Total employment across Australia lifted by 5,900 through the month. All of that was due to the part-time sector, with an increase of 6,400. Full-time worker numbers dropped by 400
That was less than expected and because the data referred to the first two weeks of March and not the final fortnight or so when tens of thousands of jobs were lost a day.
Total jobs rose 1.8% in the year to Match, slower than the long term average of 2% and another sign of the impending collapse in the numer of people employed in anyway.
April will be a miserable month, as ABS chief economist Bruce Hockman pointed out in yesterday’s statement, saying the full impact of the coronavirus would be clear in the April figures.
“Today’s data shows some small early impact from COVID-19 on the Australian labour market in early March, but any impact from the major COVID-19-related actions will be evident in the April data,” he said.
So it’s a snapshot from a world pre-virus. “The trend and seasonally adjusted estimates for March have not been impacted as a result of COVID-19,” the ABS said, “primarily due to the reference weeks falling in the first half of March.”
In fact, the statisticians expect the pandemic impacts to be so large and so volatile that it is going to change its methodology to accommodate large scale changes in employment right across the month being surveyed, and it may even ditch its trend series until a new “trend” for the pandemic and its aftermath is clear.
That made the March Labour Force data redundant in terms of a fuller picture of the damaging layoffs.
In addition, from Monday April 20, the ABS starts two new data series to try and give us an idea of the impact on jobs, wages and the economy.
The ABS has already started releasing results of a small survey of Australian business and last month released the early figures on retail sales (which will become more problematic because of the mass closures of stores, chains and other retail operators).
“From 23 March, Australia has seen the progressive introduction of major social distancing and other business-related restrictions to slow the spread of COVID-19. In response to this, the ABS introduced the Business Impacts of COVID-19 Survey, with the most recent data released on 7 April,” the Bureau said in a release this week.
It said two new statistical products – the Household Impacts of COVID-19 Survey and Weekly Payroll Jobs and Wages in Australia – will be released on 20 April and 21 April.
“Introducing these new products will provide additional information about the impact of COVID-19 on the labour market, and will avoid the need to make changes to the Labour Force Survey that would adversely affect the comparability of statistics over time and with labour market information for other countries.” the Bureau said.
The first Weekly Payroll Jobs and Wages in Australia will be issued tomorrow and the Bureau says it will provide “frequent information on changes in total jobs and total wages paid, for all employing businesses who report through the Single Touch Payroll system to the Australian Taxation Office (approximately 99% of large and medium sized businesses, and around 70% of small businesses).
“The Business Impacts of COVID-19 Survey will provide information from a sample of around 1,000 businesses, including changes to workforce arrangements, staffing levels and location of work.
“ The Household Impacts of COVID-19 Survey (out Monday)will provide information from a sample of around 1,000 households, including changes in jobs or hours worked related to COVID-19.
