In something of a surprise, China on Thursday reported exports rose 3.5% in April on a year earlier, completely confounding expectations for a 15.1% fall and helping to partially offset a hefty 14.2% drop in imports.
The small rise was the first sign of growth in exports since last December.
The surprise stoked speculation China could recover from its coronavirus lockdown quicker than first thought and support global growth in the process.
But analysts cautioned against that belief because the rise was small (though a surprise) and could have easily been the result of Chinese exporters or foreign importers replenishing inventories held offshore that were depleted in the first quarter’s lockdowns.
The rise compared with a 15.7% drop by economists and a 6.6% drop in March.
Imports sank 14.2% from a year earlier, the biggest contraction since January 2016 and worse than market forecasts for an 11.2% drop.
Imports had eased by just 0.9% in March.
The soft imports reading was due to weak domestic demand and declines in commodity prices, especially oil.
China’s trade surplus for April totaled $US45.34 billion, compared with an expected $US6.35 billion surplus in the poll and a surplus of $US19.93 billion in March.
“April shipments may have been boosted by exporters making up for shortfalls in the first quarter due to supply constraints then,” Louis Kuijs of Oxford Economics said in a note.
