While markets will again remain focussed more evidence that the number of new COVID-19 cases is slowing and progress in easing lockdowns, the costs of those measures will continue to dominate headlines.
In Australia, COVID-19 will dominate events.
There’s the continued re-opening of parts of the economy and a close watch to see if that triggers an upturn in infection rates, as well as what are now the key early reports from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) on the economy.
Today sees the release of the household impacts of coronavirus survey, with the latest weekly payrolls and wages data tomorrow.
The AMP’s chief economist Shane Oliver says these “will be watched for signs of stabilisation after the sharp fall in employment reported into mid-April.”
The ABS’s preliminary retail sales report for April on Wednesday is likely to show a fall by 15% or so after March’s 8% panic-buying driven rise.
The minutes from the last RBA meeting tomorrow are likely to remain dovish with the RBA reiterating that it is committed to “do what it can to support jobs, incomes and businesses.” So ignore any “rate cut/rise looms” comments from the media and economists, please.
There’s also a smattering of March 31 results – Elders, Australian Agriculture and Aristocrat Leisure half earliest, and a final and 4th quarter report from James Hardie (which has already provided a limited update).
Late this week (Thursday and Friday) sees the preliminary surveys of manufacturing and service sector activities in major economies such as the US, the eurozone, Japan, and Australia.
Some signs of improvement in both are expected – the question will be how big rise and where – employment and forward order measures will be watched closely.
The US reporting season is almost ended, but the coming week will see March quarter figures from most of America’s major chains. March sales fell 8.3%, April’s sales dropped more than 16% (which means the June quarter data in three months time will be ugly as well).
But with the JC Penney department store chain collapsing on Friday and going into bankruptcy, there’s every sign the week’s reports will not make pretty reading – except perhaps for giants like Walmart and Target (see separate story)
The minutes from the last Fed meeting are out Wednesday and are likely to remain dovish. But the Fed is increasingly worried though by the health and resilience of the US financial sector, according to its latest financial stability report issued on Friday.
There’s also reports on home builders’ conditions for May (tonight), housing starts (tomorrow), and existing home sales (on Thursday): all are forecast to fall sharply, according to the AMP’s Dr. Oliver.
Eurozone business conditions survey details for May will be out on Friday and will also be watched for a bounce after the extreme low seen in April helped by moves towards reopening.
Japanese business conditions surveys will be released Thursday and the inflation data for April (Friday) will show another fall – perhaps to zero.
And China’s central bank releases a decision on its key prime rate around midday Wednesday. Before then Chinese house price data is due out later today.
