A big week for the Australian economy, workers, and employers with the May labour force report and unemployment data.
Offshore there are central bank meetings in UK, Japan, Brazil, Indonesia, Taiwan and Russia, retail sales, industrial production, and housing starts data in the US, industrial production, retail sales and investment figures from China later today and March quarter GDP reports from New Zealand and Russia.
In Australia, the May job report will hopefully clear up the confusion of the April report.
AMP Chief Economist, Dr. Shane Oliver says its “anybody’s guess which way the figures will go.
“…to be honest, which way this one goes is anyone’s guess – reopening points to some improvement in employment but it only got underway late in the survey period which was the first half of May, the ABS Household Impacts of COVID survey points to a further fall in employment into mid-May but it’s not clear how this interacts with JobSeeker and JobKeeper in relation to measured employment and unemployment.
“And of course, US and Canadian employment surprisingly rose in May.”
Before the Labor Force report on Thursday, the Australian Bureau of Statistics will release its latest survey reports on the Household Impacts of COVID-19 (today) and Weekly Payroll Jobs and Wages (tomorrow).
Dr. Oliver says these “are likely to show some pick up in employment reflecting the easing of lockdown measures.”
The ABS’s preliminary retail sales data for May on Friday are expected to show an 8% rebound after the 17.7% fall in April., according to Dr. Oliver’s weekend update.
The minutes from the last Reserve Bank monetary policy meeting tomorrow will confirm that the RBA remains very dovish despite an earlier than expected reopening and pick up in the economy.
In the US watch for a gain in May’s retail sales and higher industrial production. Dr. Oliver tips an 8% rise in retail sales and a 3% rise in industrial output after the big slides in April. Both are being released on Tuesday night, Sydney time.
US housing starts for May are forecast to be up 24% (Wednesday). New York and Philadelphia regional manufacturing conditions surveys for June are expected to show a further recovery. The March quarter’s current account is due for release on Friday.
In Britain where the economy tanked in April, the Bank of England meets on Thursday and there will be more data on inflation, jobs, and retail sales.
Markets will be expecting the Bank of England to announce more asset purchases. The Monetary Policy Committee meeting will be preceded by the updates to inflation (Wednesday) and the health of labour markets, and followed by retail sales numbers on Friday.
In Asia, the final drop of Chinese economic data for May is likely to show a further improvement in economic activity with a rise in industrial production to an annual 5% (from 3.9% in April), a pick-up in retail sales growth to an annual rate of minus 0.2%( from -7.5%) and a pick-up in fixed-asset investment to an annual rate of minus 6% (from -10.3% in April).
The Bank of Japan is expected to maintain its ultra-easy monetary policy on Wednesday, Japanese inflation data for May (on Friday) is expected to show core inflation remaining very low and May trade figures tomorrow will be watched for any signs of a pickup.
