The relentless rise in COVID infections and deaths around the world will continue to dominate markets, despite Wall Street’s increasing disconnect from reality.
There are more than 12.6 million cases globally, the number rose by more than 200,000 on Friday and deaths are more than 560,000.
The US reported a new record in the number of daily infections of coronavirus of 67,149, (Reuters says was more than 69,000) with eight states — Georgia, Ohio, Utah, Iowa, Wisconsin, Idaho, Montana, and Alaska — also reporting new records.
That’s up nearly 60% since June 30.
There’s also been an increase in the number of hospitalisations in 26 states since last week. Texas, South Carolina, and California also reported an increase in average daily deaths.
In Australia Victoria is driving the concern, along with a smattering of cases in NSW.
In the US, the gathering COVID infection numbers and the presidential election battle will dominate as will the June quarter earnings season with reports from Netflix and Microsoft (see separate story).
Data on industrial production (Wednesday), retail sales (Thursday) inflation (Tuesday) and housing starts (Friday) will hold centre stage, especially retail sales.
The AMP’s Chief Economist, Shane Oliver says the July manufacturing conditions indexes for the New York and Philadelphia regions are likely to give up some of June’s rebound though as a result of the new surge in coronavirus cases.
“While headline CPI inflation (Tuesday) is likely to rise slightly thanks to higher energy prices core inflation is likely to edge lower to around 1.1% YoY.
June quarter earnings results accelerate with no change from last week for the consensus forecast for June quarter earnings to fall-44% YoY due to the lockdowns.
Thursday sees the European Central Bank meet but not make any changes to its ultra-easy monetary policy stance.
There’s a meeting of EU leaders on Friday and Saturday which will be watched in terms of progress on its recovery fund and the proposal for the common issuance of debt.
Eurozone industrial production for May (Tuesday) is likely to show a solid rebound
In Japan, the Bank of Japan is unlikely to make any changes to its ultra-easy monetary policy (on Wednesday).
Industrial production for May figures are final midweek and trade data is due out over the weekend.
China’s big data week sees trade figures tomorrow – with the focus on exports. June quarter GDP is out on Thursday with a big rebound from march’s fall forecast.
Data on industrial production, retail sales improving and investment will also be out on Thursday.
In Australia the NAB business confidence and Westpac consumer confidence surveys (Tuesday and Wednesday), and the June jobs numbers on Thursday (See separate story).
New Zealand’s second-quarter consumer inflation data is out this week.
A number of Australian companies release quarterly production reports, led by Rio Tinto, with Whitehaven Coal, and Woodside.
Melbourne-based listed investment company, Mirrabooka Investments is due to release its full-year figures today. Spanish-controlled builder, Cimic also reports this week.
