Here and offshore it looks like a quiet week lies ahead as the focus turns to the coming holiday break and the end of the year and unfortunately for the US, Europe, Japan, South Korea and other countries, the growing rate of infections and deaths from COVID-19.
Globally the most important releases will be China’s November trade data today and the inflation figures on Wednesday.
So far as central banks are concerned, the ECB, Bank of Canada, and the Central Bank of Brazil all meet to set interest rates this week. GDP data will be released by Japan, the Eurozone, and Russia.
In Australia, the flood of data released last week for the start of the month and the September quarter GDP gives way to a more normal pace of the data and some key annual meetings.
An improvement is expected in business confidence and conditions as measured by the NAB survey tomorrow, and consumer confidence as measured by the Westpac/MI survey (Wednesday).
September quarter’s house price index is due out but is a bit out of date given the monthly reports released by CoreLogic.
There’s a speech by RBA Governor Philip Lowe later today that is unlikely to add anything new on the monetary policy front. Last week’s post-meeting statement said it all, along with Dr. Lowe’s appearance before the House of Representatives Economics Committee.
In the corporate area Retailer, Metcash reports interim earnings today.
Bank of Queensland, Pendal Group, and Westpac hold AGMs this week, and Perpetual holds an investor day.
The Westpac AGM will no doubt see a lot of questions about the bank’s appalling performance this year – the 23 million money-laundering breaches and the $1.3 billion fine and last week’s chastisement and criticism from key regulator, APRA.
There’s a new new-look board, a new chair, and new full-time CEO, all of whom will try and deflect shareholder anger.
And on Friday, S&P/ASX will announce promotions/relegations among indices, which become effective the following Friday.
Overseas and China’s trade data for November later today will confirm a slide in coal imports and iron ore imports topping a billion tonnes for the first time in the first 11 months of the year.
For the first 10 months of 2020, iron ore imports rose 11.2% to 975.2 million tonnes, up 11.2% from the same period a year earlier. Iron ore imports in October topped 106 million tonnes, down 1.7% from September.
Wednesday sees the release of China’s consumer and producer price inflation data – both reading will be low (because of falling pork prices in the case of the CPI) with more signs of disinflation.
Figures on money supply and new loan data for November will also be released this week.
Japan releases September quarter GDP data this week. Economists expect it to show only a modest, partial recovery during the third quarter.
In the US inflation, data will show a slowing to an annual rate of 1.5%, according to AMP chief economist, Shane Oliver.
He says US Government funding runs out on Friday December 11, but a shutdown is likely to be averted by Congress this week.
Thursday’s weekly jobless claims will be watched closely for signs of an expected rise in numbers thanks to the lockdowns across the country caused by the coronavirus.
In Europe, COVID-19 infections and lockdowns will again dominate economic data releases.
The ECB meets on Thursday and Dr. Oliver says it is expected to extend its quantitative easing and cheap bank lending programs to combat the likely setback in the recovery as a result of the recent lockdowns in response to the rise in COVID infections and deaths.
Third-quarter GDP data will be released by the eurozone and Russia – the reports will show OK outcomes, but the autumnal surge in COVD-19 infections and lockdowns will make the reports redundant.
In Britain, markets will be watching Brexit talks and continuing problems with COVID-19 and the lockdowns across the country.
