The preliminary retail sales data for November on Tuesday helps explain why a number of retailers continue to provide larger than expected sales growth updates.
The Australian Bureau of Statistics said the preliminary report on November retail sales showed a seasonally adjusted 7% rise, thanks to Victoria returning to what was close to normality.
Outside the big rise in Victoria, sales in other states and territories still grew by a solid 2.7%.
The ABS said sales were up 13.2% from November 2019 (compared with the 7.3% rise in the year to October). November’s jump followed a more sedate 1.6% rise in October from September.
Ben James, Director of Quarterly Economy Wide Surveys, said in a statement on Tuesday that: “Victoria saw a large rise, up 21 per cent, as retail stores experienced a full month of trade following the easing of coronavirus restrictions in that state. Excluding Victoria, retail sales rose 2.7 per cent.”
South Australia, which saw a short lockdown within November, had a flat result with most retail areas seeing falls as a result of temporary store closures, although these falls were offset by a rise in supermarket sales, the ABS pointed out.
By industry, household goods retailing (with a 13% surge) led the rises, as Black Friday sales combined with major product releases in the electrical subgroup, led to a spike in turnover across the country.
The ABS said that the rises in Victoria, and Black Friday purchases, also led to large national monthly rises in clothing, footwear and personal accessories, other retailing, and department stores as well as cafes, bars etc.
The question now for investors is if there was any pull forward of sales from the usually solid December Christmas period and the early days of the post Christmas sales period.
The renewed lockdown in parts of Sydney though will have an impact (see how the brief lockdown in South Australia knocked sales flat in November). The new infections in Sydney will have a much broader impact on travel and related sectors and will probably spark sales (some hoarding) in the run up to the holidays.
But it does look like the retail sector will report a very tasty set of sales and earnings figures in February.
