Outside Australia (see separate story), the coming week will be dominated by events in US sharemarkets and the January jobs figures at the end of the week which are likely to confirm the slowdown in the pace of activity in the American economy at the end of 2020 and into the new year.
Today sees the release of start of monthly surveys of manufacturing in Asia, Europe and the US and then services on Wednesday.
China released its official surveys of manufacturing and services yesterday – the private surveys follow today and midweek.
China’s National Bureau reported on Sunday that activity in the country’s huge manufacturing sector hit a five-month low in January, thanks to the outbreak of new COVID cases.
The official manufacturing Purchasing Manager’s Index (PMI) fell to 51.3 in January from 51.9 in December, the National Bureau of Statistics said on Sunday. It remained above the 50-point mark that separates growth from contraction on a monthly basis, but was below the 51.6 expected by the market.
The US manufacturing survey is likely to be close to 13-year highs (the mid-month survey showed that 10 days ago) but retailing is weak and household consumption dipped in the final months and especially in the December quarter.
Economists say the US probably added 450,000 or so jobs in January (against the surprise 140,000 fall in December) unemployment unchanged at 6.7%.
The flow of US December quarter earnings reports ramps up (see separate story) with reports from Amazon, Alphabet (Google) and Exxon Mobil to headline.
But the situation in Wall Street sharemarkets will be watched closely for any more signs of the Reddit shareholder group and others trying to overwhelm short positions in stocks.
They started trading against shorts in silver on Thursday and Friday, pushing Comex prices up 10%. Silver is always well-shorted, as are other commodities by producers.
Look for markets like Comex to crack down to slow speculative position building.
Eurozone unemployment for December (out tonight, our time) is expected to rise to 8.4%, December quarter GDP (Tuesday) is expected to show a -1.7% quarterly contraction after the 12.5%qoq September quarter rebound as a result of the return to lockdowns and core inflation (Wednesday) is expected to have remained around 0.2%yoy in January, according to forecasts from Dr Oliver and other analysts.
The Bank of England meets Thursday and will be watched to see if it eases monetary policy further given the hit to the economy from its latest lockdown and the battering trade is taking from Brexit and a rise in costs and confusion.
China’s Caixin business conditions PMIs to be released on Monday and Wednesday are likely to have remained strong.
