| World Overnight | |||
| SPI Overnight (Mar) | 6777.00 | – 2.00 | – 0.03% |
| S&P ASX 200 | 6850.10 | – 6.80 | – 0.10% |
| S&P500 | 3916.38 | + 6.50 | 0.17% |
| Nasdaq Comp | 14025.77 | + 53.24 | 0.38% |
| DJIA | 31430.70 | – 7.10 | – 0.02% |
| S&P500 VIX | 21.25 | – 0.74 | – 3.37% |
| US 10-year yield | 1.16 | + 0.03 | 2.21% |
| USD Index | 90.39 | – 0.04 | – 0.04% |
| FTSE100 | 6528.72 | + 4.36 | 0.07% |
| DAX30 | 14040.91 | + 107.94 | 0.77% |
By Greg Peel
Thanks but no thanks
Ares Management has decided it’s no longer interested in acquiring AMP ((AMP)). This was announced along with AMP’s -30% drop in full year profit, which missed forecasts. The stock fell -11.0% to be the worst index performer yesterday.
The days of wealth management behemoths are gone.
Earnings were the primary focus on the ASX yesterday with Wall Street again not doing much. The ASX200 didn’t do much either as a whole, trading in an up 20, down -20 range before closing basically flat.
Newcrest Mining ((NCM)) was the index winner on the day after beating forecasts and increasing its dividend payout policy. It rose 4.0%.
Dividends were also the driver of a 2.5% gain for Telstra ((TLS)), simply by paying out as expected (fears unfounded). The telco also announced a plan to take back its branded stores from licencees, and noted its business trifurcation process should be complete by the end of this year.
One of those licencees is, or was, Vita Group ((VTG)), which holds the licence on around a third of Telstra stores. That stock fell -27% yesterday. Around half of stores are licenced to independents.
Nearmap ((NEA)) has come under attack from a US short seller who has claimed a rival US aerial photography company has superior technology and that management is overstating its US numbers. The stock fell -7.3%.
Telcos were the best performing sector on the day thanks to Telstra, rising 0.9%. Materials rose 0.6% on across-the-board strong commodity prices. The banks and healthcare sat it out.
The consumer sectors were hit for no apparent reason, other than they have had a very solid run this year. Discretionary fell -0.6% and staples -1.0%.
Technology was worst performer (-2.0%), led down by Afterpay ((APT)) after its jump up the day before. Afterpay is now to the technology sector as Telstra is to telcos – most of it.
Another dull session on Wall Street has our futures down -2 this morning, so it will no doubt be another day locally in which earnings results will be the only focus.
That was quick
Tilray fell -47% last night. That means if you bought the cannabis stock yesterday, when it rallied 45%, you’re already underwater.
Some pot stocks fell even harder last night. Having had the best day ever on Wednesday, collectively, pot stocks had their worst day ever on Thursday.
Meanwhile, a small but angry group of the Reddit crowd are holding an ongoing protest outside Robinhood’s headquarters in California. They might now be joined by another group, who can’t stop giggling.
The cannabis trade was about the only point of interest in another lacklustre session on Wall Street, which was a mirror of the lacklustre session on Wednesday night in which it was the Dow that had outperformed, slightly, and the Nasdaq that had underperformed. Last night it was the other way around as the FANGs came back, which is likely linked to the rise and fall of Tilray and co.
Last week saw 793,000 Americans file for unemployment. This was down from 812,000 the week before, but ahead of 760,000 forecasts. Those still on the dole fell by -145,000 but the total is still 4.5 million. And that’s just the unemployed who bother trying to find work. The full number is estimated to be around 11 million.
While the figures are sobering for Wall Street, they also underscore Biden’s push to get his relief package through. Given he can do so without bipartisan support, ex the minimum wage increase, it’s just a matter of going through the time-consuming motions.
Wall Street appears to have hit an exhaustion point in the rally from the election (when vaccines were also first revealed) while at the same time having little reason to correct.
The earnings result run-rate continues to hold above 80% beats, for a whopping average 17% above-forecast earnings. But this has not much excited Wall Street, given such upside, and more, was already priced in.
Perhaps the impeachment trial is also a point of distraction, although (a) it is conducted in the evenings and (b) the result is already known. For fear of retribution from the Trump Army, the vast majority of Republican senators will vote to acquit.
Something will ultimately give on Wall Street, but what that might be is not yet clear.
Commodities
| Spot Metals,Minerals & Energy Futures | |||
| Gold (oz) | 1823.60 | – 18.00 | – 0.98% |
| Silver (oz) | 26.96 | 0.00 | 0.00% |
| Copper (lb) | 3.74 | + 0.01 | 0.34% |
| Aluminium (lb) | 0.94 | + 0.00 | 0.19% |
| Lead (lb) | 0.96 | + 0.01 | 0.82% |
| Nickel (lb) | 8.40 | – 0.03 | – 0.40% |
| Zinc (lb) | 1.25 | + 0.03 | 2.08% |
| West Texas Crude | 57.90 | – 0.63 | – 1.08% |
| Brent Crude | 60.81 | – 0.49 | – 0.80% |
| Iron Ore (t) | 165.95 | 0.00 | 0.00% |
China is now on its week-long New Year break so base metal markets will go quiet and iron ore will come to a standstill.
Oil prices have finally dipped back, surprising no one after a lengthy run up.
I don’t know why the Aussie is so volatile at present. Is Reddit in there? The Aussie is up 0.4% at US$0.7753 with the US dollar again barely changed.
Today
Looks like we’re in for another exciting day with the SPI Overnight closing down -2 points.
Earnings results will again be the in the spotlight.
The Australian share market over the past thirty days…
