After making clear last week it would not be moving interest rates until 2024, the US Federal Reserve goes on the offensive this week with 13 appearances by senior officials between Monday and Thursday.
Inflation, growth and rates will be the focus – as the rise in US bond yields continue to drive stocks, after the 10-year reached a high of 1.75% last Thursday and Friday – its highest in 14 months.
Covid remains the focus in the US, but in Europe concern is being stepped up with more lockdowns and fears the region’s March and June quarters’ economic activity is being crushed by lockdowns and other restrictions.
In Japan Covid remains a big concern with the not unexpected decision to ban foreign visitors for the Olympics.
In Australia it will be the Covid vaccination campaign which is starting to flag.
Chair, Jay Powell leads the campaign with a speech tonight, Sydney time and then appearances before Congress on Tuesday and Wednesday, along with a predecessor and current US Treasury Secretary, Janet Yellen.
Three other Fed members speak on Monday in the US. Powell and Yellen appear before the House of Representatives Financial Services Committee on Tuesday and then on Wednesday before the Senate Banking Committee.
Other central bank speakers this week include Fed Vice Chairman Richard Clarida, Vice Chairman Randal Quarles, Fed Governor Lael Brainard, and New York Fed President John Williams.
Fed members speak on Tuesday and Wednesday and the campaign wraps up Thursday with five separate speeches or public appearances planned.
As well important data will be released in the US – personal consumption, expenditure and inflation data on Friday (that’s the Fed’s preferred measure for inflation and consumer spending).
That will be a day after the release of the third and final estimate of US 4th quarter GDP – it stands at 4.1% in the second estimate a month ago.
“The personal income and spending figures will see a reversal after the boost from the $600 stimulus cheques in the January data. This weakness won’t last long given the latest $1400 stimulus payment has been hitting bank accounts over the past week with March’s figures set to be even stronger than January for both income and spending,” ING economists noted on Friday.
Also to be released will be US existing home sales on today and new home sales tomorrow. Durable goods orders will be out on Wednesday. US 4th quarter current account figures will also be released tomorrow.
Globally the big release will be flash business activity data for the Eurozone, UK and US, as well as Japan and Australia, all of which will be eyed for first indications as to how economies are faring as the first quarter of 2021 comes to a close. Those releases are due Wednesday.
In Australia the focus will be on iron ore prices with signs a crackdown on pollution in the big steelmaking city of Tangshan could hit iron ore imports (see separate story).
So far as statistics are concerned, the preliminary trade figures for February will be the most important.
There are also a few earnings releases – Brickworks and Washington H Soul Pattinson on Thursday. New Hope Group today. Sigma healthcare is due to release on Thursday but it has already upgraded its earnings outlook.
After not releasing results as expected last week, Solomon Lew’s Premier Investments retailing group will release its figures this week.
In Europe, besides the business activity surveys on Thursday, final 4th quarter GDP estimates will also published for Spain and the Netherlands.
In Japan, the flash business activity survey will come after the minutes for the latest monetary policy meeting of the Bank of Japan are released tomorrow.
There are several central bank policy meetings this week – the Philippines is due to meet this week as are the central bank of Thailand, the Bank of South Africa, the Bank of Mexico and the Czech National Bank in Europe. The European Central Bank council holds a non-policy meeting as well.
