Another big week for business, economies and investors/consumers, with US March quarter earnings and inflation for last month, China’s March monthly and March quarter economic data and GDP, several central bank meetings and the latest jobs figures in Australia.
The March jobs data for Australia will be the most important release this week for us.
According to the AMP’s chief economist Dr Shane Oliver, Thursday’s labour force data is expected to show employment rose by another 30,000 in March with unemployment falling to 5.7% from 5.8%.
The key bits of data to watch for is the number of hours worked and labour utilisation data (how many people want more hours, want a job but can’t find one).
That will be after tomorrow’s NAB business survey and the Westpac/Melbourne Institute consumer survey on Wednesday confirm the continuing strength in business conditions and consumer confidence.
Only one earnings report this week, the interim from the Bank of Queensland on Thursday.
China’s data releases this week will also be important for Australia (as usual) as well.
Trade figures are out tomorrow with the level of iron ore imports the standout for Australian investors, along with figures for other commodity imports.
Friday sees the release of Chinese March quarter GDP growth and a slew of other data on industrial production, retail sales and urban investment including property).
The AMP’s Shane Oliver says GDP is expected to have surged to 18% year on year reflecting the recovery from the 9.7% qoq pandemic related slump a year ago.
“(B)ut this will likely mask a slowing in quarterly growth to 1%qoq due to coronavirus restrictions early in the year,” Dr Oliver wrote in his weekend note.
“Similarly, annual growth for retail sales, industrial production and investment are also expected to be strong reflecting the easy comparisons to a year ago, but to slow down from their January/February pace.”
House price figures are also due Friday.
He said tomorrow’s trade data is expected to remain very strong.
Chinese bank loans data is due out today.
In the US, the focus will be on the March Consumer Price Index to be released Tuesday night (Sydney time). Dr Oliver says this “is likely to show a sharp rise to 2.5%year on year from 1.7% as year ago price falls drop out and higher energy prices impact with core CPI inflation rising to 1.6%yoy from 1.3%.”
The March data for industrial production and retail sales (both out Thursday) and housing starts (out Friday) are likely “to show very strong gains after the storms depressed February data and the latest stimulus checks boost March spending,” Dr Oliver said.
Small business confidence (tomorrow) is expected to rise, and home builder conditions (out Thursday) are likely to be strong. Regional manufacturing conditions indicators will also be released on Thursday.
The March quarter earnings reporting season will start to kick off in the US with the current consensus being for a 23-24% rise in earnings on a year ago.
Dr Oliver expects that is “likely to be exceeded by a wide margin.” (See separate story).
Central banks meet in New Zealand, South Korea and Turkey. New Zealand will sit and hold, South Korea is likely to come to a similar outcome but no one knows what will happen in Turkey after the governor was sacked by autocratic President Erdogan after last month’s bank meeting and rate rise.
