The 1.8% slide in June’s retail sales was confirmed yesterday as analysts forecast several more months of weak consumer activity because of the lockdowns in Victoria and South Australia (now ended) and the still running shutdowns in greater NSW and southeast Queensland.
June’s fall in retail sales follows a rise of 0.4% in May 2021, and a rise of 1.1% in April 2021.
Because of those rises in April and May the June quarter saw retail sales rise 0.8% in volume terms after a 0.5% slide in the March quarter, according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics.
AMP chief economist, Shane Oliver said on Wednesday in a note; “This should help ensure that June quarter GDP is positive despite the lockdowns towards the end of the quarter.”
But he forecast that July and the September quarter” are likely to see a large fall in retail sales as the full extent of the NSW lockdown which was toughened in July impacts along with the recent Victorian and South Australian lockdowns and now the Queensland lockdown.”
Looking at the quarter, Ben James, the ABS’s Director of Quarterly Economy Wide Surveys, said: “households increased their discretionary spending for much of the quarter, with cafes, restaurants and takeaway food services (3.9 per cent), other retailing (2.3 per cent) and, clothing, footwear and personal accessory retailing (3.0 per cent) all benefiting in volume terms.
“Quarterly volumes were also impacted by lockdowns from May onwards, having a detrimental impact on department store volumes (-3.1 per cent) in particular. Despite a 0.4 per cent fall in quarterly volume terms, food retailing benefited from lockdown-related sales in May and June.”
“State and territory rises were led by New South Wales (1.7 per cent), Queensland (0.6 per cent) and Western Australia (0.8 per cent). South Australia (-0.3 per cent) and the Northern Territory (-3.0 per cent) were the only state/territory falls in volume over the quarter.”
