China’s Economy: Mystery, Enigma, Riddle

By Glenn Dyer | More Articles by Glenn Dyer

China’s trade surplus surged to an all-time high of $US84.54 billion in October as exports maintained this year’s solid pace and imports held up as prices of some key products such as iron ore weakened.

Figures from the country’s General Customs Administration on Sunday showed that October’s record-busting surplus was 60% higher than the high $US57.32 billion in the same month of 2020 and a third more than September’s very high $66.7 billion.

Exports were again strong, growing 27.1% year-on-year against the 28.1% rise the month before while imports grew at a pace of 20.1% (faster than the 17.6% rate in September).

The record performance again of exporters again underlined the odd nature of the Chinese economy at the moment – weak in some areas such as property, industry, hit by rapidly rising prices, weak demand, but still managing to grow.

Even though there remain obstacles inside China – power rationing, transport delays because of the need for ship more coal by rail and continuing Covid Delta outbreaks (50 new cases on Saturday) and a shortage of computer chips – Chinese exporters are maintaining their high level of shipments.

That’s why for the first 10 months of 2021, the trade surplus widened to a massive $US513.74 billion and up 37% from $US373.92 billion in the same period of 2020.

And while the monthly trade surplus with the US narrowed to $US40.75 billion from $US42.0 billion in September, the 10-month figure was a huge $US320.67 billion.

China ran a deficit of $US6.1 billion in October with Australia.

Overall, China’s exports in October rose to a total of $US300.22 billion – topping the $US300 billion mark for the second month in a row).

For the first ten months of the year, exports jumped 32.3% from a year earlier to $US 2.7 trillion.

Imports into China rose by 20.6% year-on-year to $US215.68 billion, slower than the forecast 25% rate.

…………

China’s crude oil imports plunged in October to their lowest since September 2018 as global prices spiked to seven-year highs.

Data from the General Administration of Customs showed imports fell to 37.8 million tonnes last month, or 8.9 million barrels per day (bpd).

That is down from 9.99 million bpd in September and 10.02 million bpd in October last year.

Over the January-October period, crude imports totalled 425.06 million tonnes, or 10.21 million bpd, down 7.2% year-on-year.

Crude imports fell for a second month and the price surge and a crackdown on illicit trading in crude oil quotas and import allowances for independent oil refiners were said to be behind the fall in September and October.

Coal imports slowed in the month after the big rise in September to offset weak domestic production, which is now rising (hitting a daily rate of 11.88 million tonnes late last week, still short though to the 12 million tonnes a day needed to keep power station stocks at comfortable levels).

China’s coal imports fell 18% in October from September, as power generators and industrial users turned to domestic supplies amid Beijing’s efforts to boost production.

The world’s biggest coal consumer imported 26.94 million tonnes of coal last month, down from 32.88 million in September, data from the General Administration of Customs showed on Sunday.

But October arrivals were still higher than the 13.73 million tonnes a year ago, when Chinese authorities set an unofficial cap of about 300 million tonnes for total coal imports in 2020 and the ban on Australian imports was at full force.

In the first 10 months of this year, China imported 257.34 million tonnes of coal, up just 1.9% year-on-year, customs data showed.

China’s copper imports in October rose for a second month, customs data showed on Sunday, as traders took advantage of a short period of favourable pricing to bring in bonded inventories of the metal.

Arrivals of unwrought copper and products into top copper consumer China were 410,541.3 tonnes last month, the General Administration of Customs said. That was up from 406,015.6 tonnes in September but down 33.6% from a year earlier.

Imports in the first 10 months of 2021 were down 21% year-on-year at 4.43 million tonnes.

Imports of copper concentrate, or partially processed copper ore, totalled 1.797 million tonnes in October, down from 2.111 million tonnes in September, the most in six months, but up 6.3% from 1.69 million tonnes in October 2020.

China’s exports of unwrought aluminium and products amounted 479,559.1 tonnes in October, down from 491,984.70 tonnes in September, which was the highest since March 2020.

That ended a run of six months of increases but imports were still up 14.5% from a year earlier.

Imports of iron ore slipped for a second month on easing demand from steel mills ordered to cut production to reduce carbon emissions, forced to slow output because of power rationing, or told to curtail production to reduce smog polluting emissions.

 

About Glenn Dyer

Glenn Dyer has been a finance journalist and TV producer for more than 40 years. He has worked at Maxwell Newton Publications, Queensland Newspapers, AAP, The Australian Financial Review, The Nine Network and Crikey.

View more articles by Glenn Dyer →