Dead Cat Bounce for Retail Sales

By Glenn Dyer | More Articles by Glenn Dyer

Retail sales bounced in January, rising 1.8% in seasonally adjusted terms, but that still left them well adrift of December’s huge 4.4% slump.

December’s fall was after big consecutive rises of 7.3% in November and 4.9% in October and means that even after the big slide in December, retail sales remain well ahead and holding on to most of their post-Delta lockdown gains.

The rise came despite the continued problems with Covid Omicron and Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) Director of Quarterly Economy Wide Statistics, Ben James said the 1.8% saw sales at their second highest level in the series.

“The emergence of the Omicron variant and rising COVID-19 case numbers, combined with an absence of mandated lockdowns has resulted in a range of different consumer behaviours.

“We have seen the type of spending previously associated with lockdowns occurring simultaneously with those associated with the easing of lockdown conditions,” Mr James said.

“This had led to variations across the industries with Food retailing recording a rise in sales consistent with previous COVID-19 outbreaks as consumers exercise caution amidst surging case numbers.

“However, the absence of lockdowns meant that other discretionary industries which would usually see a fall during the pandemic have recorded mixed results.”

The ABS said that food retailing had the largest rise in sales this month up 2.2% which is the largest monthly rise since last July with sales remaining elevated at their fourth highest level in the series. But sales fell in in cafes, restaurants, and takeaway food services by an estimated 0.8% as some consumers opted to stay home.

“Other industries which saw rises this month include other retailing (4.5 per cent), department stores (4.9 per cent) and household goods retailing (0.6 per cent), while clothing, footwear and personal accessory retailing fell 1.0 per cent as the only other industry to fall,“ the ABS reported.

Thanks to governments preferring to tighten restrictions rather than revert to full lockdowns, every state saw retail sales rise in January.

WA led the way with sales up a solid 4.7%, then South Australia with a 3.1% rise, Victoria with sales up 2.5%, NSW (a 1.0% gain), (3.1%) and Queensland (0.4%).

 

About Glenn Dyer

Glenn Dyer has been a finance journalist and TV producer for more than 40 years. He has worked at Maxwell Newton Publications, Queensland Newspapers, AAP, The Australian Financial Review, The Nine Network and Crikey.

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