2021 saw global dividends make a strong recovery. They surged 14.7% on an underlying basis, reaching a new record of $1.47 trillion, a touch ahead of our forecast. Headline growth of 16.8%, boosted by record one-off special dividends. By the end of the year, global payouts had recovered all the ground lost in 2021 and were 1.9% above their pre-pandemic high.
Nine out of 10 companies either held or raised their dividends. But the rebound in growth was driven by just a few companies, geographies and sectors. In geographical terms, growth was fastest in those parts of the world that had seen the biggest declines in 2020. One-third of the 2021 increase came from just two countries – Australia and the UK – with the US, China, Sweden and emerging markets also reaching new highs.
From a sector perspective, more than one-quarter of the increase came from miners, which benefited from soaring commodity prices. They delivered record payouts, almost twice the previous high registered in 2019. The payouts were so large that BHP became the world’s top dividend payer.
Companies restarting dividend payments that were paused during 2020 also proved important. Banks, whose dividends jumped by 40%, or $50.5 billion, reached a level just one-tenth lower than their 2019 peak. In fact, a quarter of 2021’s dividend growth came from just nine companies, eight of which were either banks or miners.
So what can we expect from 2022? We predict that global dividends will reach a new record of $1.52 trillion, up 3.1% on a headline basis, or 5.7% in underlying terms. Previous patterns of growth should re-establish themselves, whilst the mining sector may not be able to repeat the record level of payments witnessed in 2021, given the moves in some commodity prices.
No forecasts can be guaranteed.
Download Janus Henderson’s global dividend index for the full picture.
