China is moving closer to a massive shutdown and testing regime as the number of Covid cases escalates (by Chinese standards) as the government tries to control what is looking like the largest and most widespread outbreak of the disease since the original 2020 one in Wuhan .
Already the central government had imposed lockdowns and similar restrictions on movement on three major cities and towns where the population involved already exceeds Australia’s near 26 million.
The latest spikes in mostly Covid Omicron have occurred in Northeast China’s Jilin, East China’s Shandong and Guangdong provinces in the south as well as worrying upsurges in infections in Shanghai and Beijing and the Shenzhen special economic zone which saw several major cities to go into lockdowns and a sharp rise in the number of asymptomatic patients.
The growing cases of Covid, lockdowns and restrictions have raised fears of more supply chain interruptions for companies large and small which are still struggling to overcome the impact of disruptions caused by the earlier Covid pandemic and subsequent eruptions in other economies vital to global supply chains.
Shanghai is seeing all travel, including air movements banned or restricted, most schools are back online but the stockmarket was open on Monday and fell for that 1% while the Hang Seng index in Hong Kong lost more than 3% to hit a new series of six-year lows.
Sunday saw the government place the 17.5 million residents of the southern city of Shenzhen (which borders Covid-hit Hong Kong) into a lockdown due to last until March 20.
But the Shenzhen market was open and the main composite index lost 1.6% and more at one stage in weak trading. The CSI 300 index which combines leading shares from Shanghai and Shenzhen exchanges was down 1.8%.
Shenzhen’s lockdown came after the nine million residents of the northeastern city of Changchun were put in lockdown last Friday and intense testing ordered in the nearby city of Jilin (both are in the province of Jilin).
Shenzhen is the one of the tech manufacturing hubs of China and is vital to China economically. The measure was announced Sunday, followed earlier restrictions placed on Shenzhen’s central business district.
All bus and subway systems were shut, and businesses, except those providing essential services, have been closed.
Employees were told to work from home if they can. Residents will be barred from leaving Shenzhen – home to the headquarters of giants Huawei Technologies and Tencent Holdings, as well as one of China’s busiest ports – except in limited situations.
More importantly, Shenzhen is home to the China headquarters and a key manufacturing facility of Hon Hai Precision Industry, the main manufacturer of Apple’s iPhone and other products.
Smaller outbreaks across much of China (11 provinces were reported with Delta infections last August through November) last year interrupted exports, manufacturing and hit retail sales of all types in several occasions. This larger outbreak is a bigger threat to activity, but as the west found, vaccination levels help, although in China school children appear to be at risk.
Around a third of China’s 1.4 billion people have received a third or booster dose of a Covid vaccination – Australia is over 50%.
Chinese state media say the Omicron variant has replaced Delta to become the dominant strain in these outbreaks (repeating what happened in the west in late 2021), once again breaching the country’s defences by spreading from campus to community, with a major external access point being the Hong Kong border.
As western health officials and governments found the much shorter incubation period for Omicron is reducing the mass lockdown and testing regime that China has relied on, hence more and more mentions in official state media of the free availability and recommendations for RAT (Rapid Antigen Testing) which are now being slowly substituted.
There’s a growing suggestion in the official media that by emphasising the use of RATS by individuals and governments the test, lockdown, test regime aimed at elimination is slowly changing to one of suppression (without admitting to the change).
The surge in infections is thought to be linked to the neighbouring city of Hong Kong, where about 300,000 people are currently in isolation or under home quarantine.
Xinhua newsagency reported that the mayor of Jilin city, was removed from his position on Saturday as the Covid outbreak escalated. The mayor was also removed from other positions including deputy Party chief of the city in Northeast China’s Jilin province. other officials have lost their jobs or been demoted.
Xinhua also reported that an exhibition centre in Changchun, the capital of Jilin province under construction and will be turned into a temporary hospital with more than 1,500 beds. At the same time a temporary isolation site with more than 700 beds will also be set up in other pavilions near the temporary hospital.
Establishing temporary facilities with 2,200 beds tells us the Chinese authorities fear a rapid worsening in infection rates in and around the city and Jilin.
The Global Times newspaper reported that “Wang Guangfa, a respiratory expert at Peking University First Hospital who was also one of the experts of the National Health Commission who visited Wuhan in early January 2020, told the paper on Sunday that “Omicron shows the characteristics of atypical infection symptoms and has a more hidden transmission process, making it difficult to detect infected persons in a timely manner.”
The paper reported that “cluster infections in campuses have become a prevalent phenomenon in recent outbreaks. In the city of Laixi, Shandong Province, 304 confirmed cases have been reported since March 4, of whom 217 are students.”
“In this case, the epidemic had already spread insidiously in the school before three students tested positive at a fever clinic. The source of the infection remains unknown.
“Wang noted the country’s dynamic zero-COVID policy has also been adjusted according to the new situation, citing the newly approved five COVID-19 antigen self-testing products, which will be used as a supplement to the standard nucleic acid (PCR) testing to help fight the spread of the virus.
“Experts said the adjustment was made based on the features of the Omicron variant, which shows that China is adjusting its COVID-19 policy to be more scientific and targeted.” Chinese doctors have noted that the current variant has a much faster incubation period of 2 to 3 days than the original Covid variant’s 10 to 14 days
