After all the interest rate fireworks last week from central banks and then Wall Street’s histrionics, it looks like a quieter time for all this week – except perhaps China where the flow of monthly data for April starts and the trade data today won’t be pretty.
But it won’t be all that peaceful – with April Consumer Price Index reports released midweek in the US and in China and speculation already rising about what they might contain.
The solid US jobs data on Friday helped set the tone for the American CPI report on Wednesday, and the Producer Price Index the day after.
After its 0.50% rate rise last week, the US Federal Reserve goes on the front foot this week with a dozen speeches lined up by various members and regional presidents – a couple are doing two.
Fed chair Jay Powell is not on the circuit. Eight of the speeches are due before the release of the CPI on Wednesday. Two are after – one each on Wednesday and Thursday.
The US markets sold off again Friday, though at a slower rate than on Thursday after the April jobs report showed a gain of 428,000 new jobs – a not too hot, not too cold and slightly more than the 400,000 expected by economists.
Economists are now forecasting a slight slowdown in the CPI as the sharp rise in energy prices in March won’t be repeated (oil and petrol prices remained elevated last month, they eased).
Economists at Moody’s say year-over-year CPI growth will decelerate, though it will remain above 8% but just under the 8.5% recorded for March.
Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics expects headline CPI to rise 0.3% for the month or 8.2% year-over-year. Core CPI rose an annual 6.5% in March and economists say that could ease slightly as well.
We also get a look at producer and import prices for April and both will show a slight easing, according to forecasts because of the strength of the US dollar.
It’s a quieter week in Australia – there’s the continuing noise of the election campaign in its second last week as well as the market’s worries about rising interest rates.
The NAB’s business survey for April is due out tomorrow with the Westpac consumer confidence survey for the same month due on Wednesday.
Final details of retail sales for march and the March quarter will be issued, along with arrivals and departures figures for March and the quarter as well, payrolls and wages for part of April and monthly turnover data as well for March.
A few earnings starting with Westpac’s interim today, then CSR, GrainCorp, Orica, Pendal and Xero. The Commonwealth Bank releases its third quarter trading update mid-week.
Offshore the March quarter earnings reports see a pickup in reports from Japan, more from Europe and a slowing from US companies.
Results are expected from the likes of Fox Corporation, Disney, Toyota, Honda, Alibaba, Sumitomo, Mitsubishi, Itochu, Siemens, Bayer, Sony, Union Pacific, Foxconn, Progressive.
Trade data today and inflation on Wednesday, and then China releases final car sales data on Thursday as well as lending figures for April as well the same day.
The slowdown in activity will be very apparent by the end of this week.
In Europe there’s UK first quarter GDP data out this week, eurozone industrial production, final consumer prices reports for Germany, Spain and France as well as Spain.
Economists are watching to see if Russia releases inflation and other data due this week. Consumer prices are forecast to have risen by close to 18% (annual) in April from 16.7% in March. Trade data for April would be due this week, but none was published for March and there’s no news on whether April’s figures will be issued.
