Three quarterly results from U.S. steel rivals to BlueScope Steel (ASX:BSL) confirm the fears BSL has about pricing in the North American business in the six months to June.
BlueScope reports its full-year results for 2023-24 on August 19, but at its interim release in February, it warned, "Our outlook for the Company in the second half is for a result slightly below 1H FY2024, in an environment of unprecedented softness in Asian steel spreads.”
While the softness in Asia has continued, especially in China, the June quarter figures from Cleveland-Cliffs, Nucor, and Steel Dynamics suggest the U.S. steel sector saw soft demand and prices across the three months to the end of last month, just as BlueScope suggested in its February report.
The company’s North American business is its most important revenue and earnings center. The first-half EBIT of $417 million was down 15% on the second half of 2022-23 (a comparison with the first half of 2022-23 would be misleading because of changes to the structure and business mix).
BlueScope did warn of softening demand from some customers.
On Monday, Cleveland-Cliffs, a blast furnace-based producer and iron ore miner, which is not strictly comparable to BSL, said it withstood a fall in revenue from the weak market to do better than forecast.
Cleveland-Cliffs reported a steep drop in second-quarter profit as weakening prices reduced margins for steel. Nucor said profit plunged in the second quarter, hit by lower selling prices, and warned about a sequential drop in profit in the third quarter. Steel Dynamics revealed a drop of 47% in second-quarter profit, thanks to falling domestic steel prices. The latter two companies are, like BSL, electric arc furnace-based producers of steel and products like coil, flat rolled, or coated steel.
Cleveland-Cliffs earned just $US2 million for the quarter on a near 20% drop in revenue to $US5.09 billion because of weakening demand and prices for flat-rolled products (its staple). The company's gross margin fell to $US145 million from $US629 million last quarter.
The company, however, seems not to be too upset, announcing last week that it planned to acquire Canadian steelmaker Stelco for $3.4 billion Canadian dollars ($US2.48 billion).
Nucor beat market estimates for earnings, though they were still down sharply, at $US645.22 million, more than 50% lower than the $US1.46 billion in last year's second quarter. The company's revenue for the quarter fell 15.1% to $US8.08 billion from $US9.52 billion last year—a pointer for BlueScope.
Nucor, a giant electric arc furnace-based producer, said on Monday that it lifted sales volumes in the steel products segment in the quarter, which partially offset the lower domestic steel prices. However, it expects lower prices to continue to weigh on earnings, forecasting a weaker third quarter compared to the three months to June 29.
Nucor said average steel pricing fell due to an oversupply of steel from both domestic production and imports, prompting distributors to refrain from purchasing excess inventory.
A third producer, Steel Dynamics, the third-largest U.S. producer, also blamed too much steel in the market for the weak prices and demand.
"We experienced customer order inconsistency within the steel platform despite the steady underlying demand dynamics, as scrap prices further declined and customers continued to manage to very low inventory levels," said Steel Dynamics CEO Mark Millett.
With prices anticipated to decline further through summer, when steel consumption traditionally wanes, analysts expect steelmakers to trim production until domestic demand rebounds. The company is betting on sectors such as automotive, non-residential construction, and industrials, hoping that market conditions would support solid domestic steel consumption in the second half of the year.
"Continued onshoring of manufacturing businesses, combined with the expectation of significant fixed asset investment to be derived from public funding… will competitively position the domestic steel industry," Millett said.
The company's net profit for the quarter ended June 30 was $US427 million, almost half of the $US812 million a year ago. The total revenue for the quarter was $US4.63 billion, down from $US5.08 billion in the June quarter of last year.
All three U.S. giants saw solid cash flows in the quarter as they kept tight control on costs, so a pointer on what to watch for from BSL’s American performance.
