Another big week ahead for markets to chew over, although there’s nothing to match both the buildup and the content of Fed Chair Jay Powell's comments on Friday that changed the interest rate outlook and pushed markets into the boom zone.
However, there will be some important data releases, as well as major earnings reports.
In Australia, next week brings data for the June quarter national accounts and the HDP report. On Wednesday, we’ll see figures on the value of construction work done in the June quarter, followed by private investment spending figures on Thursday and new estimates for the 2024-25 financial year.
Economists think the capex figures could show a marked slowdown in business investment in the quarter, dropping to just 0.2% from the high 1% in the previous quarter.
There’s also the July monthly inflation indicator out on Wednesday, with a forecast reading of 3.4%, down from 3.6% in June. Some economists question the partiality of this monthly indicator.
On Friday, we’ll get the release of housing credit for July and retail sales for July, which will tell us if the signs of an upturn in spending seen in post-June 30 updates are materialising.
It’s also the final week of the June 30 reporting season for major companies, with BHP's figures dominating later today. A small profit or loss is expected after the significant write-downs in the value of its WA nickel business.
Fortescue is expected to report a solid profit for the June year, though the outlook might be different.
Other miners due to report include South32, Lynas Rare Earths, Worley, Stanmore, and gold miners Ramelius, WestGold, and Perseus.
Major retailers Woolworths, Coles, Harvey Norman, Endeavour Group, and Wesfarmers are set to report, along with smaller groups like Lovisa, The Reject Shop, Adairs, and Mosaic.
In addition to the final group of lithium companies reporting (IGO, MinRes, and Pilbara Minerals), Qantas and Air New Zealand are scheduled to report on the same day (August 29). Bega Cheese, the largest locally owned food group, and Flight Centre are also due to report.
Bendigo and Adelaide Bank is another June 30 reporter, as is Nine Entertainment on Wednesday. Southern Cross Media also reports this week.
In the US, the second estimate of June quarter GDP will be released, along with US and EU inflation data and important earnings reports, led by Nvidia. Additionally, Australian economic data for June’s growth report will be available next week.
There will also be crucial end-of-month surveys of activity across the Chinese economy late in the week.
Besides the US, there are GDP updates from Canada, Germany, and India. On Thursday, the latest PCE prices and consumer spending and costs data will be issued on Friday, alongside the second estimate of GDP.
The market currently expects the second estimate of GDP to remain unchanged from the first estimate of 2.8% (following the 1.4% rise in the March quarter). It also anticipates an unchanged reading of 2.5% for headline PCE inflation and 2.6% for the core reading, with a small 0.2% month-on-month rise.
Additionally, the US will update consumer confidence, personal income, and spending data, which will help shape the inflation picture and steer monetary policy expectations for the market.
In the Eurozone, preliminary August inflation figures will offer insights into the European Central Bank's path forward, as expectations gather for a September rate cut. The flash CPI reading is forecast to come in around 2.2% to 2.4%, down from 2.6% in July.
China's official activity survey from the National Bureau of Statistics is due over the weekend, ahead of worldwide manufacturing and services PMI releases at the start of September. A slightly weaker reading is forecast, confirming that the economy remains locked in a very sluggish mode.
