September 13, 2024
Each week The Last Word will offer a review of the week's events and their impact on the markets.
Topics discussed this week include:
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DOWNLOAD RESEARCH REPORTSecures binding contract with Tier-1 OEMUS based anode active project gathers momentumMagnis Energy Technologies (MNS.ASX) – MNS is planning an anode active facility in the US and recently announced a binding, yet conditional, contract for the supply of anode active with Tesla. The contract is for a minimum 17.5kt/year with an option to purchase another 17.5t/year. Conditions precedent carry a tight development timeframe, with first production scheduled for February 2025. Site selection is underway and co-locating with an OEM on a brownfields site makes sense. Long lead items have been ordered and detailed engineering and design is expected to commence soon. |
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December Quarterly Report: Q2 FY2023Looking past the rain – there’s a rainbow.TerraCom released their operating results for the December quarter FY2023 with operating metrics being in line with our forecasts. Unseasonal rains in both Australia and South Africa contributed to operational and logistical issues across all mines, however guidance for annual production at Blair Athol is unaffected and highlights the quality of TerraCom’s skills in operational management. We continue to like the stable operating metrics around the company’s Australian operations and see potential for the South African operations to benefit from increased management focus given the rationalisation of operations following the closure of the Ubuntu mine. Corporate Connects overall financials remain unchanged as does our target price of $1.35 share. We maintain our forecast for a fully franked quarterly dividend of 7.5c/share to be paid in the March and June quarters of FY2023. |
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DOWNLOAD RESEARCH REPORTHigh performance synthetic anode & cathode materials Building a US based materials supply chainNOVONIX (ASX:NVX) – is scaling a synthetic anode materials plant in the US and piloting nickel rich cathode material in Canada. Why? China is dominant and growing – 100% of global natural anode and 68% of synthetic anode is refined in China. In short, China controls the global midstream battery chain by controlling 60% of chemical refining, 87% of anode manufacturing, 61% of cathode manufacturing and 73% of battery manufacturing. It is global battery supply and price domination at scale. |
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DOWNLOAD RESEARCH REPORTAntisense Therapeutics (ANP) Taking a Quick Approach to Long COVIDThis report looks at the results of a collaborative study Antisense undertook which looked at the largest protein expression database in Long COVID-19 patients who experienced neurologic symptoms well after the primary or acute SARS-CoV-2 infection was considered over (Groups 1 & 2, with 48 subjects Group 2 comprising a single patient from a different clinical site). The symptoms and others experienced by such patients result in a highly significant amount of illness, possibly more than all primary SARS-CoV-2 infections i.e COVID-19. |
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DOWNLOAD RESEARCH REPORT4Q reveals more focus on profit and cash flow• LBY’s 4Q FY22 quarterly activities update showed continued solid growth in top line metrics, albeit slowing, with GMV of NZ$203m (+26% on pcp) and income of NZ$12.1m (+23% on pcp).
• Net Transaction Margin (NTM) disappointed at -0.5%, due to further increase in credit losses from 4.0% to 4.9% of GMV. However, new fraud and credit risk management tools have seen losses recover materially with NTM back to 1.2% in March and LBY is confident of further recovery in coming months.
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DOWNLOAD RESEARCH REPORTSigns MOU with Ford Company – Kachi is now sold out!Lake Resources (LKE. ASX) – LKE has signed two non-binding MOU’s in the space of 10 days. Ford Company (Ford) has signed an MOU for ~25,000t/year and last week Hanwa, a Japanese commodity trader signed a MOU for up to 25,000t/year. Subject to execution, this is an amazing feat as Ford and Hanwa are prepared to enter into longer-term strategic partnerships with LKE. Commercial negotiations are still ongoing but are expected, especially if Ford & Hanwa inject new equity into LKE, to further de-risk the project financing & thus ensure LKE and Kachi are fully funded. |
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DOWNLOAD RESEARCH REPORTStrategic Vanadium-battery growth with Titanium & Iron earnings resiliencyTNG Ltd is an ASX-listed technology owner and developer of the world-class Mount Peake near-surface vanadiferous titanomagnetite deposit. To unlock value, TNG will concentrate ore from its central Northern Territory mine for processing through its patented TIVAN® process produce three premium quality revenue streams: hi-purity vanadium pentoxide (V2O5) for steel alloys and Vanadium Redox Flow batteries, a quality titanium pigment for paints and a premium steel input with >64%Fe iron ore fines. |
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Promising exploration and development update while SOP prices continue to riseTwo recent gravity surveys have considerably exceeded expectations and revealed potential for extensions to the existing MRE at Lake Throssell, plus a material growth opportunity at Lake Yeo. This reinforces the potential for a multi-decade, Tier-1 SOP production hub based around Lake Throssell. TMG is currently completing work towards the PFS due early 2023, including drilling to start in Q3 2022, evaporation trials and permitting activities. Results from these programs will support the PFS and any future resource upgrade. Benchmark SOP prices have risen to ~US$940/t due to recent geopolitical developments. The Oct 2021 Scoping Study assumed a SOP price of US$550/t and contained a sensitivity analysis showing every 10% increase in price drives a +$144m increase in the project NPV of $364m. The c.70% increase above the Scoping Study thus implies a project NPV of ~$1.4bn. |
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DOWNLOAD RESEARCH REPORTIncreasing our TargetDespite the lower realised oil and gas price, which fell by 5.4% and 19.7% respectively in August, Calima managed to show improvement in its key business metrics. We expect higher production in November due to the contribution by the new Thorsby wells which will be drilled in August/September which will see Calima meet its 2021 production guidance of 4,500 boe/d. |
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DOWNLOAD RESEARCH REPORTEmerging Financial Wealth Advisory GroupWT Financial Group Limited (WTL) is a growing diversified financial services company, founded in 2010 and listed on the Australian Stock Exchange (ASX) in 2015. Its advice and product offerings are delivered primarily through a group of independent financial advisers operating as authorised representatives of WTL under its Wealth Today Pty Ltd (Wealth Today) and Sentry Group Pty Ltd (Sentry Group) dealer group operations. It has around 275 advisers across more than 200 financial advice practices Australia-wide. It also operates a direct-to-consumer operation under its Spring Financial Group brand. |
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DOWNLOAD RESEARCH REPORTImmutep Taking the Fight to CancerIn May 2021, Corporate Connect analyst Marc Sinatra published a comprehensive research report on ASX-listed biotech Immutep Ltd (ASX: IMM). So impressed was he with IMM that Corporate Connect felt it imperative that a follow-up report be released placing a valuation on the company, because the market was not seeing the vast potential of eftilagimod alpha (efti). This follow-up report has been released today. Using comparables, after adding cash back to their EV estimate and dividing by the total number of issued shares, Corporate Connect now places the fair value of an Immutep share at $A2.20. |
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DOWNLOAD RESEARCH REPORTMarket leading lifelong learning platform technology company in Australia and SE AsiaPayGroup (PYG) delivers multi-country BPO services and cloud SaaS HCM solutions, assisting companies to manage employees in multiple, complex jurisdictions. The company has many growth opportunities, including new clients, new jurisdictions, new products, partner expansion, and new revenue sources. PYG’s scalable business model allows operating leverage and with savings from in-housing third party technology, support margin expansion. |
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DOWNLOAD RESEARCH REPORTMarket leading lifelong learning platform technology company in Australia and SE AsiaOpenLearning (OLL) is a higher education technology company that operates a scalable online learning platform through a software-as-a-service (SaaS) business model and provides a global marketplace of high quality courses for learners of all levels. Its primary customers are education providers based in Australia and South-East Asia (primarily Malaysia). OLL started operations in Australia in 2012 and expanded to Malaysia in 2015, Singapore in 2018, and recently also Indonesia. |
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