The first week of the new month and the new quarter begins tomorrow, bringing new data releases, speculation on interest rates, more challenges for companies like Star Entertainment, growing concerns about the Middle East, and, of course, the final month before the November elections in the U.S.
Additionally, we have the start-of-month surveys for manufacturing and services sector activity, starting today (and tomorrow) in China, and elsewhere from Tuesday onwards.
There’s plenty to captivate the markets, offering more than enough to divert the bears.
September 30 (today) marks the end of the financial period for many major Australian companies, as they close their books for half-year or full-year reports. Offshore, it’s also the end of the quarter for thousands of companies.
In the U.S. and elsewhere, retailers are preparing for Black Friday and post-Thanksgiving sales at the end of November. This heightens concerns over the potential disruption from the U.S. port strike, set to begin tomorrow (Tuesday), which could have a significant impact on the U.S. economy and the November 5 election campaign.
China begins a week-long holiday tomorrow to celebrate National Day (October 1) and the 75th anniversary of its founding in 1949. Expect a lot of back-patting from the government, with little to no mention of the property crisis.
The most important data release this week is Friday’s U.S. jobs report for September, with estimates around 145,000, up from 142,000 in August and 89,000 in July. The unemployment rate is forecast to remain steady at 4.2%, while hourly wage growth may slow to 3.7%, still well above inflation. U.S. job vacancy data (JOLTS) will be released on Tuesday.
Federal Reserve Chair Jay Powell is scheduled to speak tonight (Monday, U.S. time).
Eurozone inflation, due out tomorrow, is forecast to dip to 2.1%, with the unemployment rate for last month expected to hold steady at 6.4%.
Japan will release its September quarter business sentiment survey (the Tankan) tomorrow, which is expected to show modest results. Employment and industrial production data for Japan will also be issued tomorrow.
In Australia, private credit growth for August, released by the RBA, is likely to remain moderate. CoreLogic house price data, due tomorrow (Tuesday), is expected to show continued moderate home price growth of around 0.5% month-on-month in September—though Melbourne may be joined by other major cities showing declines.
Tuesday will also bring August building approvals (likely down 7% from July) and retail sales (expected to be up 0.4% from July).
The trade surplus for August, due Thursday, is likely to fall slightly to around $5.5 billion, while housing finance data for August, to be released Friday, is expected to show a small rise of around 1%.
In the markets, watch for an announcement today or tomorrow from New Zealand-based A2 Milk regarding a significant deal.
Today, companies such as ANZ, Westpac, Macquarie Group, NAB, Orica, Nufarm, Aristocrat, and Incitec Pivot will close their accounts for the full year, with reports due at the end of October or in early November.
