More evidence suggests that the Chinese economy is weak, and the patchy stimulus measures announced in the past two weeks may be too little, too late.
Over the weekend, consumer price growth slowed alarmingly, with the economy again hovering on the edge of a return to deflation. For manufacturers and producers, deflation deepened once more last month.
Trade data for September was also weaker than expected.
China’s exports grew by 2.4% in September compared to a year ago, down from the stronger-than-expected 8.7% in August. This marked the softest growth in five months, although it appeared weaker due to the 9.5% contraction in September 2023.
Imports rose by 0.3%, down from the already very weak growth of 0.5% in August. Both figures were well below expectations; exports were forecast to have risen by 6% year-on-year in September, while imports were projected to increase by 0.9%.
Exports had been a solitary bright spot in China’s economy in recent months, as lackluster consumer spending and the continuing real estate slump suppressed demand for both domestic and imported goods and services.
China's trade surplus widened to $81.71 billion in September from $75.5 billion in the same month of 2023, although the market had forecast a figure of $89.8 billion. China’s Customs Administration data showed that exports to the U.S., its largest trading partner, rose by 2.2% in September compared to a year ago, while imports from the U.S. climbed by 6.7%.
Exports to the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, China’s largest trading partner regionally, rose by 5.5%, while imports increased by 4.2%. Exports to the European Union grew by 1.3%, but imports dropped by 4%.
China’s exports to Russia surged by 16.6%, although imports fell by 8.4%.
China’s National Bureau of Statistics is set to release third-quarter GDP data on Friday, along with figures for retail sales, industrial production, and fixed asset investment for September.
