Betting markets and fundamental analyses are diverging from traditional polls, adding layers of unpredictability to an election too close to call.
The electoral college, swing states, and the 270-vote threshold
The US president is elected through the Electoral College, which allocates electoral votes to each state based on its Congressional representation, totalling 538 votes. A candidate needs at least 270 electoral votes to win.
While some states like California and Texas are consistently Democratic or Republican, swing (or “battleground”) states can go either way, often depending on voter turnout and late shifts in sentiment.
Over time, which states have been considered swing states has shifted. For example, Florida has been a long-standing battleground, but other states like Arizona and Georgia, historically Republican strongholds, have recently become more competitive.
The seven key states to keep an eye on on Tuesday (US time) are: Arizona (11 votes), Georgia (16), Michigan (15), Nevada (6), North Carolina (16), Pennsylvania (19) and Wisconsin (10).
Outside of the battlegrounds, Harris will likely receive about 226 electoral votes from 19 states and the District of Columbia, meaning that 44 of the 93 votes in the swing states would carry her over the line. Trump is expected to secure 219 votes from 24 states, with major contributions from Texas (40), Florida (30) and Ohio (17). He needs 51 of the 93 swing state votes to win.
When do the ballot boxes close?
Polls begin to close in eastern states from 6pm US Eastern Time on Tuesday. This is 10am Wednesday in Australia Eastern Daylight Time (AEDT). Michigan and Wisconsin close at 1pm AEDT.
Depending on how close the election is, we may have a good idea of who will be the next US president by around 5pm AEDT, but a final result may take days to announce.
Paths to victory
Trump’s likeliest path to victory is via three of the “sunbelt” states — Arizona (11), Georgia (16) and North Carolina (16). These are states that have tended to vote Republican since the 1980s. If Trump takes these states, he would have 43 swing votes, and would need to win in just one of Michigan (15), Pennsylvania (19) or Wisconsin (10) for the 8 votes to make 270.
Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin were formerly regarded as part of the Democratic “blue wall”, reliably voting Democrat from 1992 — until Trump flipped them in 2016. However, they turned for Biden again in 2020.
If Trump loses Georgia or North Carolina, both of which are worth 16 votes, his path to victory becomes a lot more difficult.
For Harris, the clearest path is maintaining the blue wall. These would exactly give her the 44 votes she needs.
If she loses any of the three, she would need to secure a more traditionally Republican battleground.
Pennsylvania (nicknamed the “Keystone State” because it was the middle colony of the original 13 colonies) is the biggest prize. Polling is showing a toss up. It’s basically a must-win for both candidates.
Polls close there at 11am AEDT on Wednesday.
If Trump flips Pennsylvania (19 votes), he could lose Arizona (11 votes) and still become the next president.
Swing state electoral college votes and voting history
Here’s how each swing state voted in 2016 and 2020:
- Pennsylvania (19 votes): Voted for Trump in 2016 but flipped to Biden in 2020.
- Georgia (16 votes): Flipped to Biden in 2020 after a long Republican streak.
- North Carolina (16 votes): Voted for Trump in both 2016 and 2020, but recent trends indicate it could be competitive.
- Michigan (15 votes): Voted for Trump in 2016 but returned to Democrats in 2020.
- Arizona (11 votes): Flipped to Biden in 2020 after decades of Republican dominance, marking Arizona as competitive.
- Wisconsin (10 votes): Voted for Trump in 2016 and flipped to Biden in 2020.
- Nevada (6 votes): Voted Democratic in both 2016 and 2020, though recent polling shows it’s still competitive.
Aggregate polling data
FiveThirtyEight (a prominent website for polling aggregation, which takes its name from the Electoral College vote count) shows Harris leading by 1.2 percentage points nationally, but swing states are neck and neck.
- Georgia: +2 Republican
- Michigan: +1 Democrat
- Nevada: Even
- North Carolina: +1 Republican
- Pennsylvania: Even
- Wisconsin: +1 Democrat
Polling combines various methods, including live interviews and online panels. In 2016, polls underestimated Trump’s support, particularly in the Midwest. To address this, pollsters try to take into account demographic factors like age, race, education and geography.
A recent article in Scientific American discusses why polling figures should be viewed through a skeptical eye. A big reason is that very few people pick up unsolicited phone calls or answer unprompted text messages. Even the well-respected New York Times/Siena College poll gets around a 1% response rate.
“The game’s over,” notes Michael Bailey, a professor of American government at Georgetown University. “Once you have a 1 percent response rate, you don’t have a random sample.”
Early voting insights by state
In 2020, 66.8% of citizens 18 years and older voted. That is, around 158.43 million people voted, out of a voting age population of 242.27 million.
In 2024, around 74 million people have cast early in-person and mail-in ballots.
Some states that register voters by party (like Pennsylvania and Florida) provide publicly accessible early breakdowns. Other states include information on gender, which is potentially telling; the gender gap is emerging as a key divide this year. In a USA Today/Suffolk University poll from 25 October, women backed Harris by 53% to 36%, a mirror image of men’s support for Trump, 53% to 37%.
Based on statistics from the University of Florida’s Election Lab as of 1 November:
- Arizona: 2.2 million early votes. By party registration, 32.7% Democrat and 40.9% Republican.
- Georgia: 4 million early votes. By gender, around 55.6% female and 43.5% male.
- Michigan: 2.8 million votes. By gender, 55% female and 44.4% male.
- Nevada: 1.1 million votes. By party registration, 33.7% Democrat and 37.9% Republican.
- North Carolina: 4.2 million votes. By party, 32.4% registered Democrat, 33.6% registered Republican. By gender, 51.8% female and 41.3% male.
- Pennsylvania: 1.7 million votes. By party, 55.9% Democrat and 32.9% Republican.
- Wisconsin: 1.3 million early votes.
But, again, one should be careful when looking at these numbers. It’s early days. For instance, 1.7 million early votes have been cast in Pennsylvania, but more than 6.9 million Pennsylvanians voted in 2020.
Betting markets and DJT
Polymarket, the largest political market facilitating bets on the outcome, is rating Trump’s chances at 55.3%. Kalshi is giving Trump a 52% chance and Smarkets is giving him a 55.56% chance.
PredictIt, an online prediction market owned and operated by Victoria University of Wellington, New Zealand, is the outlier, giving Harris a slight edge at 52%.
Trump Media & Technology Group (NASDAQ: DJT), which is viewed as something of a bellwether for Trump’s political fortunes, is currently trading down 13.53% at US$30.56. This is part of a downward trend since a high of US$51.51 on 29 October, but rising from a low of US$12.15 on 23 September.
Betting markets can be viewed as a collective best guess, based on all available information, including polls, since they respond quickly to new information and force punters to “put their money where their mouth is”. They also have a good track record of predicting election winners, going back over 150 years in the US.
However, predictions may be overly influenced by polling data, and movement in odds is subject to “herd behaviour” momentum. Also, such markets have fewer participants compared to financial markets, which means that individual large bets can disproportionately sway the odds.
Leading up to the 2016 election, betting markets consistently favoured Hillary Clinton, with odds hovering around 70-80%.
Fundamental analyses
Allan Lichtman used his well-known “Keys to the White House” model to call the election for Harris in early September, before the Harris-Trump debate. Lichtman claims to have predicted 10 out of the 10 previous elections correctly (Lichtman predicted Gore to win in 2000, and says he only lost because of improper ballot counting).
Andrew Gelman, a professor of political science and statistics at Columbia University, has a model that combines economic indicators and polling data. In 2024, he collaborated with Ben Goodrich to create The Economist’s Election Tracker, which is currently giving Harris odds of 52%.
Alan Abramowitz, a political scientist at Emory University, has the “Time for Change” model, which takes into account such factors as the incumbent president’s approval rating, economic growth and the duration of the incumbent party’s control of the White House. As of late August, the model predicted a narrow Harris victory in both the popular vote and the Electoral College.
