French Prime Minister Michel Barnier is bracing for a no-confidence vote that could topple his government just months after its formation. The crisis was triggered by Barnier’s decision to use the French Constitution to push through a contentious 2025 budget.
Article 49.3
Article 49.3 of the French Constitution allows the government to pass legislation without a parliamentary vote by assuming responsibility for the bill. However, many see the provision as undemocratic. Invoking Article 49.3 triggers the possibility of a no-confidence motion. If such a motion is filed within 24 hours and subsequently adopted by more than half of the Assembly’s members, the government is compelled to resign, and the proposed legislation is rejected.
Since the introduction of the Article in 1958, it has been employed 89 times, notably by Prime Minister Michel Rocard, who used it 28 times between 1988 and 1991.
Opposition
In France’s fractured National Assembly, no single party holds a majority.
Both the left-wing New Popular Front (NFP) coalition and Marine Le Pen’s far-right National Rally (RN) have filed motions, setting the stage for a decisive vote on Wednesday.
Together, they hold enough seats to oust Barnier.
Barnier, appointed by President Emmanuel Macron in September, defended the move, calling it essential to address France’s soaring deficit and ensure fiscal stability. “We have come to a moment of truth, where everyone must take responsibility,” he told lawmakers.
Fiscal challenges
Under the European Union’s Stability and Growth Pact (SGP), a country’s budget deficit—the difference between government spending and revenue—must not exceed 3% of its gross domestic product (GDP) in a given year. If a member state exceeds this limit, it may face scrutiny, financial penalties, or pressure from the EU to implement corrective measures.
At the heart of the French dispute is Barnier’s austerity budget, which aims to tackle France’s ballooning deficit—projected to rise to 6.1% of GDP this year, more than double the EU’s limit. The plan proposes €40bn in spending cuts and €20bn in tax increases.
Despite concessions, including scrapping planned increases in electricity taxes and reducing healthcare coverage cuts, the budget failed to win support from the opposition. Without meaningful fiscal reform, France’s borrowing costs could rise sharply, further destabilising the economy.
The political uncertainty has already rattled financial markets and has long-term implications for investor confidence. On Monday, French 10-year bond yields rose to their highest levels since the eurozone debt crisis.
What’s next?
If the no-confidence vote passes, Barnier’s government will collapse, making him the shortest-serving French prime minister since the Fifth Republic’s founding in 1958. President Macron would then face the challenge of appointing a new prime minister or forming a “technocratic government” (a temporary administration where decision-making is handled by experts rather than by elected politicians) to manage the country until new legislative elections can be held next summer.
Macron cannot dissolve parliament before June 2025 due to constitutional constraints.
Le Pen, who has sought to position the RN as a viable governing party, could still recalibrate her stance, opting to wait for the final budget vote on 20 December. She may prefer to preserve her party’s influence rather than risk the unpredictability of new leadership negotiations.
