Gold has surged past the $3,100-per-ounce mark for the first time, hitting fresh record highs on Monday as investors reacted to rising global trade tensions and growing fears of economic fallout from new tariffs announced by US President Donald Trump.
Spot gold climbed as high as $3,126.97 during morning trading before easing slightly. It’s currently trading at $3,124.06, up 1.26% on the day. Gold futures touched an intraday peak of $3,160.70 in New York before settling around $3,146.30.
The latest rally brings bullion’s year-to-date gains to 18%, driven by heightened risk aversion, inflation concerns, and increased geopolitical uncertainty. Trump’s remarks over the weekend, suggesting broad-based tariff measures could begin as early as Wednesday, further unsettled markets. “You’d start with all countries. So let’s see what happens,” he said, contradicting earlier suggestions from Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent of more targeted measures.
Goldman Sachs raised its year-end forecast for the precious metal to $3,300 an ounce, noting the potential for a spike to $4,500 in a worst-case scenario. Bank of America’s earlier forecast of $3,063 has already been surpassed, while UBS’s $3,200 target is now within reach.
“Tariff issues will continue driving prices higher until there is some finality to the tit-for-tat campaign,” said Edward Meir, a consultant at Marex.
Despite a rise in the US dollar and Treasury yields, gold’s rally has been undeterred, highlighting its strength as a safe haven. The US Dollar Index rose 0.24% to 104.25, while the 10-year Treasury yield hovered near 4.26%.
Meanwhile, economic data offered mixed signals. The Chicago PMI rose to 47.6, the highest since November but still indicating contraction for the sixteenth consecutive month. Analysts at OCBC said gold’s safe-haven appeal has “further strengthened” amid deepening trade and geopolitical risks.
Gold’s momentum has been further bolstered by strong central bank demand, ETF inflows, and investor positioning ahead of key economic releases, including the ISM PMIs and nonfarm payrolls due later this week.
Wall Street analysts say the metal could climb further if volatility continues. Société Générale and Goldman Sachs both see room for a further breakout if recession risks mount. Goldman recently lifted the probability of a US recession to 35%, citing household and business pessimism.
