While Ampol’s first-half FY21 result with earnings of $340m and net profit of $205m was higher than forecast, the result was eclipsed by an announced proposal to acquire NZ-based Z Energy ((ZEL)).
Credit Suisse believes the main potential acquisition value is in sourcing for a larger Australia and New Zealand short position.
The broker notes Z Energy has put estimates on the potential value of that position by indicating in its FY21-24 strategy NZ$45-55m of earnings benefits from sourcing 20m bbl per annum of fuel (NZ1.5cpl).
Neutral rating is unchanged and the target is lowered to $28.72 from $29.87 due to the widespread impact of lockdowns on fuel volume.
Sector: 0.
Target price is $28.72.Current Price is $27.34. Difference: $1.38 – (brackets indicate current price is over target). If ALD meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
