While the central bank meetings in Australia and New Zealand (see separate story) will be big deals locally this week, Friday’s unemployment data for the US will be the dominant event, along with the usual start of month surveys of manufacturing and service sector activity.
The September jobs data will be a key input into when the Fed starts tapering its bond buying in November.
At the moment market expectations are for 500,000 new jobs after August’s lower than expected 235,000 while the unemployment rate is likely to fall further to 5.1% from 5.2%.
Economists think jobless numbers will be impacted by the damage caused to oil and gas businesses by Hurricane Ida (and in the northeast of the state as well where the storm caused record rain and flooding in and around New York).
US manufacturing jumped 1.2 points to 61.1 from 59.9 in August. That’s a very strong outcome and was the 16th monthly expansion reading in a row. That’s despite closures of car plants in the month by GM, Ford and Toyota, plus several smaller carmakers.
The services activity survey in the US late today is expected to fall back slightly but to a still strong level of around 60.
The trade data will also be released in the US, while the continuing argument the Biden administration’s infrastructure bill and the budget continue, along with arguments over lifting the limit on spending and debt.
In Australia the August trade data will be released, along with the latest weekly payroll employment and wages data.
In Europe, there’s industrial production and euro zone retail sales figures this week.
In Asia, the Reserve Bank of India is also expected to keep its benchmark repo rate steady at 4%, while China continues on its national holidays.
But both countries will continue trying to boost supplies of coal and other energy to try and avert more blackouts, brownouts and other problems.
