A spate of quarterly profits from some big American banks will dominate financial markets, especially shares, this week around the world.
The results will be released as the flow of US third quarter earnings picks up.
General Electric, IBM and Intel will be other majors to report and influence investor confidence, especially in the US.
A ‘quiet’ week in Australia after the fireworks of last week with the rate rise, the good jobless figures, the rise in markets (especially gold) and the general belief that Australia has really escaped the crunch.
Federal Treasurer Wayne Swan speaks tonight to the Australian Business Economists and will no doubt face myriad questions about the stimulus, whether it should be withdrawn or should be maintained.
But the major interest will be in a speech in Perth on Thursday morning from RBA Governor, Glenn Stevens.
It will be his first appearance in public since the rate rise decision last Tuesday.
The speech will be before the release of the board meeting’s minutes six days later, so his comments will have much greater importance for markets.
October’s consumer sentiment is due Wednesday from Westpac and The Melbourne Institute and will be of particular interest as to whether there has been a negative response to the interest rate rise.
The Morgan polling group’s weekly consumer confidence survey has shown a steady rise and Friday showed the highest level since early 2005.
The NAB’s monthly report on business confidence and conditions is due out tomorrow.
It has also shown a sharp rise in confidence levels among businesses in recent months.
There only statistics is Lending Finance for August from the Australian Bureau of Statistics midweek.
The Bank of Queensland is due to report its 2009 full year result later in the week, the first of the September 30 balancing banks to do so.
Rio Tinto produces its third quarter production review midweek, as does Iluka.
More annual meetings this week as well including Ansell, CSL, Transfield Services, JB Hi-Fi, The Reject Shop, Elders (EGM), Downer EDI and the News Corp meeting in New York Friday night, our time.
America’s September retail sales and industrial production will be released this week and will help us understand just where the economy is and whether it is finally emerging from recession.
There has been some doubt on the US economy given the disappointing September car sales and payroll data last week, but some retailing figures from individual groups Friday showed a bigger than forecast rise.
October’s Reuters/Michigan survey of consumer confidence will be an important barometer.
The minutes of the Federal Reserve’s (FOMC) policy meeting on September 23 are out midweek as well and will be examined to see if there’s any more elaboration on the comment in the post meeting statement that “economic activity has picked up” and implied that the US recession had ended.
Consumer Price Inflation figures are out this week for the US as well.
It is expected to show inflation rose only 0.2% in September and remains very subdued. Business inventories will also be released.
20% of the 30 stocks in the Dow will report third-quarter results this week as the reporting season picks up steam.
US stock markets will be open Monday, though government offices will close for the Columbus Day holiday.
Two tech giants are among the companies posting third-quarter results: IBM (Thursday) and Intel (same day).
US analysts expect higher figures from IBM, lower earnings from Intel, but the latter’s comments on the chip market will have a big impact on confidence, especially in the tech sector, which remains stronger than the wider market.
Major banks JPMorgan Chase & Co., the largest US bank by market capitalization, and investment bank Goldman Sachs are expected to post profits.
Bank of America Corp. and Citigroup Inc., the second and 4th largest US banks respectively, are expected to post losses.
The comparisons will be with tough third quarters a year ago: better comparisons may be with the first and second quarters of this year to see if growth levels are being maintained.
Consumer bad debts in housing mortgages and credit cards plus corporate loans will be the areas to watch for any damage emerging at rates faster than previously talked about.
JPMorgan reports Wednesday, Goldman, Bank of America reports Friday and Citigroup a day earlier.
Health-care products giant Johnson & Johnson is expected to report moderately lower earnings Tuesday.
Healthcare has been a big employer during the crunch, but results have been mixed. Export sales will be hurt as well by the continuing downturn, although the weaker dollar may provide some relief.
General Electric Co. reports Friday, two weeks after confirming talks are under way to merge its NBC Universal media unit with Comcast Corp.
But investors will be closely scrutinizing GE’s comments on its industrial businesses for indications the economy is on the mend. GE is expected to report earnings down more than 50% from 2008.
The US Senate Finance Committee will vote Tuesday on a $US829 billion health-care bill, after months of efforts to gain consensus on the massive overhaul. A positive vote will see it go to the full Senate.
A high-profile trial involving two former Bear Stearns hedge fund managers is scheduled to begin Tuesday in New York.
The funds collapsed in the summer of 2007, costing investors roughly $US 1.4 billion, and Bear Stearns was rescued and sold to JP Morgan in March of last year. The
