All eyes are on China this week, not only for Xi Jinping’s ascension to his third term as President, but also to another set of economic figures that will confirm its atrocious handling of Covid and the economy.
Not that the thousands of faithful members of the Chinese Communist party will bother about weak growth, de facto lockdowns in parts of Beijing, Shanghai (again) and dozens of other locations, nor the reappearance of deflation in the country’s huge manufacturing sector or weak growth.
Trade data for September and the first three quarters of 2022 is due out today after being delayed repeatedly on Friday and then postponed until today.
The story about Xi’s economy will not be pretty – the quarterly GDP data alongside monthly figures for fixed-asset investment, industrial production, and retail sales will tell a story of an economy struggling to gain momentum.
After narrowly avoiding a contraction in the June quarter, the Chinese economy is expected to have grown 3.2% year on year in the September quarter.
Fewer movement controls in the quarter compared with the last have supported consumer spending and industrial production, but the real estate sector has weighed on growth despite policy support.
Cuts to one- and five-year loan prime rates by the People’s Bank of China in the third quarter will be felt in subsequent quarters.
But the Party Congress and all the hot air, bombast and other talk from Xi and his new leadership group will dominate the news flow from China, especially about Taiwan, the US and Ukraine.
In Australia it’s the jobs data for September and unemployment figure on Thursday. The AMP’s chief economist, Shane Oliver says the Australian jobs data for September “is expected to show a moderation in employment growth to around 20,000 new gigs and with unemployment remaining low at 3.5%.”
Corporate events in Australia this week is dominated by annual meetings, and the ANZ full year results on Thursday.
Holding meetings this week (and no doubt revealing trading updates) will be Transurban, Treasury Wine Estates, Adairs, Orora, The Reject Shop, Blackmores, Tyro Payments, IAG, Origin Energy, Stockland, Cochlear, Brambles, Steadfast, St Barbara Mines, Southern Cross Media, Aussie Broadband and Endeavour Group.
CSL holds its Vifor update and new guidance today (Vifor is the $A16 billion Swiss pharma CSL took over earlier this year.
Quarterly reports are expected from Rio Tinto (Q3) later today, BHP tomorrow (Q1), Woodside and Santos (both Q3) on Thursday.
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In Europe, besides the continuing war in Ukraine and tensions over energy supplies and costs, the third quarter reporting season steps up while final data on September inflation will confirm a 10% annual rate.
The UK’s problems will be emphasised by September inflation data – economists at Moody’s forecast it will hit 10% and add to the woes of the Truss government.
There’s also retail sales for last month – they are forecast to show a small fall of 0.2% and the financial pressures will continue in bonds, the pound and interest rates.
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America’s economic calendar is light this week and there is unlikely anything that will alter the outcome of the Fed’s two-day November meeting which looks very much like another rate rise of at least 0.50% and 0.7%.
Key data expected include industrial production, housing starts and initial unemployment claims. We’ll also get new data on existing-home sales, and plenty of signs point toward another sales decline.
