Diary

By Glenn Dyer | More Articles by Glenn Dyer

In Australia, the focus will be on the Reserve Bank’s interest rate decision today and the jobs data on Thursday.

The market thinks there will be a rate rise of 0.25% to 4.25% later today.

It would be the fifth rate rise since the central bank reversed its cutting last October.

But with early data for February showing a slowing level of demand in retailing and another fall in building approvals, some analysts think the bank should pause for a month.

The AMP’s Dr Shane Oliver says, "Our assessment is that the RBA should hold fire.

"Recent data for housing finance, retail sales and building approvals have all been soft and anecdotal evidence suggests that all the talk about rate hikes is having a dampening impact on the economy and so with inflation expected to remain under control we think the RBA can afford to wait another month or so before moving again.

"However, what I think the RBA should do and what it will do are not necessarily the same.

"The barrage of upbeat commentary from the RBA and the Governor’s unprecedented appearance on TV to warn home borrowers against borrowing too much and that interest rates are likely to increase further, coming on the top of a strengthening labour market, strong house price gains and a likely big boost to national income from iron ore price increases, suggests that the Bank will raise rates by another 0.25% on Tuesday.

"But it’s a close call," Dr Oliver said.

Australian data for job ads (out today) and employment (on Thursday) will also be released with the labour force report likely to show a 7,000 gain in employment and unemployment remaining around 5.3%.

National Australia Bank CEO, Cameron Clyne, addresses an Australia-Israel Chamber of Commerce lunch in Melbourne on Wednesday.

Car industry sales figures for March are due out tomorrow.

The Bank of England and European Central Bank are both likely to leave interest rates unchanged at 0.5% and 1% respectively.

The Bank of Japan and South Korea’s central both meet this week. 

The Bank of Japan will probably do nothing on rates, but could upgrade its economic outlook.

South Korea’s central bank could start its tightening process, but will probably decide to wait another month or two.

The jump in US job creation in March was confirmed and this will help add to the continuing positive tone about shares from US investors.

Friday’s non-farm payrolls report showed the economy added 162,000 jobs in March, the fastest pace of growth in three years.

As well as the payrolls report, investors will look to minutes of the Fed’s Open Market Committee meeting last month.

The US first quarter earnings season approaches with the first report from Alcoa due April 12.

Reuters said at the weekend that its survey shows analysts expect first-quarter earnings for S&P 500 companies to rise 36.3%.

That’s slightly less than the 37.2% expected in January and Reuters points out that it’s considerably less than the very bullish 51.2% forecast last October.

So far, 70 S&P 500 companies have given negative earnings guidance, Reuters points out, compared with 55 companies that have given positive ones.

Fed Chairman, Ben Bernanke, speaks in Dallas on Wednesday.

Friday’s wholesale inventories report for February is expected to show a gain of 0.4% from a revised loss of 0.1% in January.

About Glenn Dyer

Glenn Dyer has been a finance journalist and TV producer for more than 40 years. He has worked at Maxwell Newton Publications, Queensland Newspapers, AAP, The Australian Financial Review, The Nine Network and Crikey.

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