Rising U.S. economic nationalism is poised to disrupt global trade, regardless of who wins the White House in November, with shipowners particularly alarmed at the prospect of Donald Trump’s protectionism returning "on steroids," according to the head of a major industry group.
"The world order hasn’t faced such a threat since before World War II," said Guy Platten, secretary-general of the International Chamber of Shipping, in an recent interview . "The last time we went down this path, it didn’t end well… Trade wars can lead to real wars."
Platten expressed concerns that if Trump’s nationalist policies return, they could do so with even greater intensity. Reflecting on a “scary” visit to the White House during Trump’s first term in 2018, he noted, "If that regime comes back, we might see those policies amplified. That just sets off a chain reaction where everyone else does the same… The entire framework of international law and agreed rules could come under threat."
However, Platten also criticized the Biden-Harris administration for targeting Chinese shipping. With Kamala Harris, the current vice president, expected to be the Democratic nominee, these policies could continue.
Chinese shipowners "are very concerned about the possibility of tariffs on Chinese-built ships," Platten said. "There’s always a cost involved… something politicians don’t always consider."
Platten’s remarks reflect growing unease among shipowners about the political trajectory in the U.S.
Earlier this week, Vincent Clerc, CEO of Danish shipping giant AP Møller-Maersk, warned that customers are accelerating orders out of fear that a renewed U.S.-China trade war under Trump could escalate.
Data from Xeneta, a shipping analytics firm, revealed a spike in China-Americas trade in the first five months of the year, returning to levels seen right after the COVID-19 pandemic. Analysts attribute this partly to Trump’s threat to raise tariffs on all Chinese imports to 60%.
"U.S. businesses still have the chaos of COVID-19 fresh in their minds," said Emily Stausbøll, a senior shipping analyst at Xeneta. "If front-loading can also help mitigate regional supply chain risks, like potential strikes at U.S. ports or new tariffs on Chinese goods, it’s understandable why some U.S. importers are taking this approach."
For decades, the U.S., as the world’s largest economy and biggest importer, has championed free trade policies that fueled globalization and the growth of the shipping industry. But now, leaders from both political parties are pushing for protectionism.
Trump has proposed aggressive trade restrictions, including a 10% levy on all U.S. imports and a 60% tax on Chinese goods.
President Joe Biden has also raised tariffs on various Chinese goods, from electric vehicles to steel, in a pre-election effort to protect U.S. jobs and gain support in former industrial regions. In April, the White House launched an investigation into China’s “uniquely aggressive” actions that it claimed had caused “distortions” in the shipping market.
This move followed a petition from the United Steelworkers union, accusing Beijing of using interventionist policies to dominate global shipbuilding and maritime trade.
The Biden-Harris administration had already expanded the powers of the U.S. shipping regulator in 2022 after President Biden criticized “foreign-owned carriers” that clashed with American importers during the supply chain disruptions of the COVID-19 pandemic.
However, Platten argued that further crackdowns on shipbuilding, potentially including duties on Chinese-built ships docking at U.S. ports, would be counterproductive.
Pointing to predictions that such measures would increase demand and prices for Japanese and Korean ships, he warned, "The U.S. will end up paying more for this policy than it gains from any tariffs. History has shown time and again that protectionist measures ultimately cost the country more."
