Corporate Travel Management’s European woes cast a shadow over global growth

Corporate Travel Management (ASX:CTD) appears to have been stingy in setting its final and full-year dividend for 2023-24. However, a larger buyback for the coming year should help mitigate shareholder disappointment, as evidenced by the initial share price decline post-results.

The shares dropped more than 10% at one point, but losses were later trimmed to around 1% by the end of the trading day.

The company reported solid increases in revenue and earnings for the year ending June, but the total dividend for the year increased by only 4% (slightly above inflation).

Revenue and other income rose 9% to $716.9 million, while underlying EBITDA climbed 21% to $201.7 million. Statutory profit increased by 9% to $84.5 million.

The board set a final dividend of 12 cents per share (unfranked), down from 22 cents a year ago. This brought the total for the year to 29 cents per share, up from 28 cents in 2022-23.

The company ended the year with no debt and $134.8 million in cash. It completed $26.1 million of share repurchases at an average price of $15.55 per share under the on-market share buyback program announced in November 2023. The program's completion date has been extended to June 30, 2025, and reset to up to $100 million.

While this buyback indicates board confidence, it should also be seen as a way to provide support for the share price. The company's outlook, particularly for its European operations, was not entirely positive.

For the Rest of World (North America, ANZ, and Asia), the Group is targeting approximately 10% revenue growth and EBITDA margins increasing from 23% to 27.5% in FY25, capitalizing on strong momentum in the second half of FY24, new customer wins, the rollout of Sleep Space, and automation initiatives.

In Europe, the Group forecasts a revenue decline of approximately 18% and EBITDA margins of approximately 49% in FY25 due to the completion of non-recurring projects. This projection assumes no asylum vessel extension or war-related humanitarian work. The forecast decline reflects strong comparative figures to FY19 (pre-Covid) with an improved EBITDA margin and profit expectations greater than 150% of FY19.

About Glenn Dyer

Glenn Dyer has been a finance journalist and TV producer for more than 40 years. He has worked at Maxwell Newton Publications, Queensland Newspapers, AAP, The Australian Financial Review, The Nine Network and Crikey.

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